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Falcon U20 vs Sergipe U20 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano U20
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 0-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent head-to-head results give a strong hint here. Sergipe U20 have shipped 1.62 goals a game lately, while Falcon U20 have conceded 0.86 and scored 2.24. Past meetings favor Falcon U20 slightly — 4-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Sep 9, 2026, ending 1:0. Model xG sits at 1.94 vs 1.38, favoring Falcon U20. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%
Falcon U20
15%
Draws
35%
Sergipe U20
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcon U20

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Falcon U20 carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Win probability leans Falcon U20's way, sitting at 90%.
  • Falcon U20 have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Falcon U20, who have won 2 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Falcon U20 have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Falcon U20 Clean Sheet 17%
Sergipe U20 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon U20 Sergipe U20
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 19 18
Draws 5 2
Losses 5 9
Goals Scored 2.24 2.1
Goals Conceded 0.86 1.62
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 9, 2026 Copa do Brasil U20
Sergipe U20 vs Falcon U20
1:0
Sep 5, 2026 Sergipano U20
Sergipe U20 vs Falcon U20
0:2
Jun 5, 2025 Sergipano U20
Falcon U20 vs Sergipe U20
2:0
May 14, 2025 Sergipano U20
Falcon U20 vs Sergipe U20
5:1
Jun 30, 2024 Sergipano U20
Sergipe U20 vs Falcon U20
0:3

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon U20 84 / 100
Sergipe U20 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon U20 Sergipe U20

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon U20 Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcon U20 went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Falcon U20 scored in 79% of their last 29 games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Sergipe U20 let in goals in 55% of their last 29 matches.

Scoring Trends

Falcon U20 VS Sergipe U20
1.63 Goals Scored 1.75
1 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon U20

(Home)
30 Sept
Falcon U20
3 : 0
Atletico Gloriense U20
27 Sept
Desportiva Aracaju U20
1 : 1
Falcon U20
23 Sept
Falcon U20
5 : 0
Guarany SE U20
19 Sept
Itabaiana U20
0 : 4
Falcon U20
16 Sept
Falcon U20
2 : 1
Confianca U20
Page 1 of 6

Sergipe U20

(Away)
07 Oct
Nautico U20
6 : 2
Sergipe U20
30 Sept
Confianca U20
1 : 2
Sergipe U20
26 Sept
Sergipe U20
1 : 0
Lagarto U20
23 Sept
Sergipe U20
3 : 0
Atletico Gloriense U20
19 Sept
Desportiva Aracaju U20
3 : 1
Sergipe U20
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Falcon U20 -
Sergipe U20 -
Itabaiana U20 -
Desportiva Aracaju U20 -
Final
TBD -
TBD -