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Falcon vs Sergipe

Brazil Brazil

Sergipano Estadio Estadual Lourival Baptista (Batistao), Aracaju
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Match Events

31' Event
Lucas Mineiro
38' Event
Juliano Fabro

AI Match Summary

Sergipe in this Sergipano matchup, with the score ending 0-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Sergipe.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

61%
Falcon
30%
Draws
9%
Sergipe
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Falcon

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

61% / High Confidence
  • Attack-wise there's a gap: Sergipe at 1.23 per game, Falcon at 1.07.
  • Model gives Falcon a 61% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Sergipano form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
Falcon Clean Sheet 68%
Sergipe Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcon Sergipe
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 14 14
Draws 3 9
Losses 12 8
Goals Scored 1.07 1.23
Goals Conceded 1.1 0.97
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 24, 2026 Sergipano
Falcon vs Sergipe
0:2
Jan 25, 2025 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Falcon
0:1
Feb 24, 2024 Sergipano
Sergipe vs Falcon
0:1
Jul 8, 2023 Serie D
Sergipe vs Falcon
1:3
May 20, 2023 Serie D
Falcon vs Sergipe
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcon Compare

Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Sergipe Compare

Top Goalscorer Lucas Mineiro
1 Goals
Assists Leader Juliano Fabro
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcon 95 / 100
Sergipe 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcon Sergipe

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Falcon Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Recent resilience: Falcon stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Falcon found the back of the net in 62% of recent matches (29 games).

Sergipe's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.80 goals when they meet.

Scoring Trends

Falcon VS Sergipe
1.25 Goals Scored 1.5
0.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 50%
0% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcon

(Home)
23 Aug
Desportiva Aracaju
0 : 0
Falcon
18 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
Atletico Gloriense
13 Aug
Falcon
1 : 0
America de Propria
08 Aug
Atletico Gloriense
0 : 1
Falcon
05 Aug
Falcon
2 : 0
Desportiva Aracaju
Page 1 of 6

Sergipe

(Away)
27 Jun
Sergipe
0 : 1
ASA
21 Jun
ASA
1 : 1
Sergipe
14 Jun
Sergipe
1 : 1
Serra Branca
31 May
Decisao
3 : 2
Sergipe
23 May
Sergipe
0 : 1
Treze PB
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Sergipe 9 6 2 1 13:6 20
2 Itabaiana 9 5 2 2 12:4 17
3 Lagarto 9 4 4 1 16:8 16
4 Confianca 9 4 3 2 10:6 15
5 Guarany SE 9 3 3 3 10:10 12
6 America de Propria 9 2 6 1 8:8 12
7 Falcon 9 3 2 4 8:10 11
8 Atletico Gloriense 9 3 1 5 14:13 10
9 Dorense 9 2 1 6 9:23 7
10 Desportiva Aracaju 9 0 2 7 5:17 2
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)
Promotion - Sergipano (Play Offs)