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Falcons vs Deren Prediction & H2H Stats

Mongolia Mongolia

Premier League 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Funami Y.
6' Event
Tselmuun T.
45' Event
Erdenebat G.

AI Match Summary

Falcons in this Premier League 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Falcons.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Falcons
15%
Draws
50%
Deren
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Deren

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

50% / Medium Confidence
  • Falcons have won more games recently than Deren.
  • Model gives Deren a 50% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Premier League 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Falcons have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Falcons Clean Sheet 10%
Deren Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falcons Deren
Matches Played 26 31
Wins 19 18
Draws 5 4
Losses 2 9
Goals Scored 3.5 2.87
Goals Conceded 0.85 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.17 2.62
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 20, 2025 Premier League
Falcons vs Deren
2:0
Jul 16, 2025 Premier League
Falcons vs Deren
3:2
Jun 7, 2025 Premier League
Deren vs Falcons
0:1
Oct 12, 2024 Premier League
Falcons vs Deren
2:1
May 26, 2024 Premier League
Falcons vs Deren
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falcons Compare

Top Goalscorer Tselmuun T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Baatartsogt N.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.9
Avg xA / game 0.58

Deren Compare

Top Goalscorer Funami Y.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erdenebat G.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.38
Avg xA / game 1.46

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falcons 10 / 100
Deren 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falcons Deren

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Deren Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falcons scored in 85% of their last 26 games.

Deren's defensive record shows goals conceded in 74% of 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Falcons went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

- VS Deren
0 Goals Scored 4.13
0 Goals Conceded 1.13
0% Over 1.5 100%
0% Over 2.5 75%
0% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Falcons

(Home)
01 Nov
Falcons
3 : 1
Ezra
29 Oct
Falcons
0 : 2
Manila Digger
26 Oct
Svay Rieng
3 : 0
Falcons
12 Oct
Khovd
0 : 2
Falcons
07 Oct
Khoromkhon
0 : 7
Falcons
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Deren

(Away)
01 Oct
Khovd Western
1 : 5
Deren
27 Sept
Deren
5 : 2
Amtat FC
20 Sept
Ulaangom City FC
0 : 5
Deren
17 Sept
Deren
0 : 0
FC Ulaanbaatar
12 Sept
Hunters
1 : 2
Deren
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Falcons 27 21 4 2 104:19 67
2 Khangarid 27 18 3 6 66:32 57
3 FC Ulaanbaatar 27 15 6 6 65:40 51
4 Deren 27 15 5 7 83:30 50
5 Khoromkhon 27 11 1 15 58:89 34
6 Khovd 27 9 5 13 72:61 32
7 Hunters 27 8 5 14 38:49 29
8 Khaan Khuns-Erchim 27 7 6 14 54:64 27
9 Central Stallions 27 7 1 19 31:156 22
10 Brera Ilch 27 4 4 19 43:74 16
Promotion - AFC Challenge League 2025/2026 (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League 2024/2025 (Relegation)