Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Falkenberg vs Varnamo

Sweden Sweden

Superettan Falcon Alkoholfri Arena, Falkenberg
Our Tip

Match Events

27'
Sub
Bertilsson N. In: Mohammad E.
Out: Bertilsson N.
33' Event
Stalheden T.
Assist: Aguda G.
39'
Ohlsson S.

AI Match Summary

The Superettan game between Falkenberg and Varnamo finished 3-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Falkenberg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Falkenberg
6%
Draws
4%
Varnamo
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Falkenberg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Falkenberg come out ahead of Varnamo on wins alone.
  • 90% — that's where the model lands on Falkenberg taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
Falkenberg Clean Sheet 20%
Varnamo Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Falkenberg Varnamo
Matches Played 27 28
Wins 16 5
Draws 6 6
Losses 5 17
Goals Scored 2.38 0.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.38 0.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 2.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 23, 2026 Superettan
Falkenberg vs Varnamo
3:1
Mar 8, 2025 Club Friendly
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
1:0
Oct 25, 2021 Superettan
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
3:2
Jul 10, 2021 Club Friendly
Varnamo vs Falkenberg
0:1
May 1, 2021 Superettan
Falkenberg vs Varnamo
0:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Falkenberg Compare

Top Goalscorer Stalheden T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Lindberg O.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.83
Avg xA / game 1.19

Varnamo Compare

Top Goalscorer Robertsson L.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Falkenberg 85 / 100
Varnamo 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Falkenberg Varnamo

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Falkenberg's goal record stands at 96% scoring rate across 27 recent games.

Varnamo let in goals in 86% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Solid form: Falkenberg remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Falkenberg VS Varnamo
2.38 Goals Scored 0.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Falkenberg

(Home)
26 Jul
Sundsvall
1 : 2
Falkenberg
21 Jul
Falkenberg
2 : 3
Helsingborg
17 Jul
Falkenberg
6 : 0
Laholms
11 Jul
Falkenberg
1 : 2
Landskrona
26 Jun
Brage
2 : 4
Falkenberg
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Varnamo

(Away)
25 Jul
Varnamo
0 : 0
Brage
19 Jul
Varnamo
2 : 3
Ljungskile
13 Jul
Varnamo
0 : 2
Naestved IF
28 Jun
Landskrona
1 : 0
Varnamo
21 Jun
Brage
5 : 1
Varnamo
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Norrkoping16102427:1032
2Falkenberg1694332:2431
3Varberg1693432:2230
4Ostersund1675426:2126
5Nordic United1675426:2326
6Oster1682627:2526
7Landskrona1674522:1725
8Helsingborg1673630:3224
9Ljungskile1664623:2122
10Oddevold1656528:2621
11Sandviken1654725:2519
12Norrby1639421:2318
13Brage1645728:2917
14Orebro1636713:2215
15Varnamo16321117:3411
16Sundsvall16301313:369
Promotion - Allsvenskan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Allsvenskan (Relegation)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)