Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Casa Pia

Our Tip

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Heatmaps Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Famalicao play Casa Pia in the Liga Portugal 2025/2026. It looks like a close match. Recently, Famalicao averaged 1.31 goals scored and 1.07 conceded. Casa Pia averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.55 conceded. In past meetings, Famalicao won 3, Casa Pia won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Feb 23, 2026 ended 2:0. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.19 for Famalicao and 0.76 for Casa Pia. This points to a Famalicao double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

45%

Famalicao

34%

Draws

21%

Casa Pia

Draw rate projection: 34% Favored: Famalicao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

80% / High Confidence

Famalicao picked up more points recently compared to Casa Pia.
Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.19 vs 0.76 xG).
Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 68%

Over 2.5 Goals 45%

Over 3.5 Goals 27%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%

Famalicao Clean Sheet 27%

Casa Pia Clean Sheet 12%

First Half Goal 61%

Second Half Goal 65%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Famalicao	Casa Pia
Matches Played	29	31
Wins	13	6
Draws	8	11
Losses	8	14
Goals Scored	1.31	0.97
Goals Conceded	1.07	1.55
Expected Goals (xG)	1.25	0.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.88	1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2026 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Casa Pia

Possession: 46% - 41% Cards: 3 - 0

2:0

Sep 21, 2025 Liga Portugal

Casa Pia vs Famalicao

Possession: 44% - 51% Cards: 1 - 3

1:1

May 16, 2025 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Casa Pia

Possession: 52% - 45% Cards: 2 - 1

2:1

Jan 5, 2025 Liga Portugal

Casa Pia vs Famalicao

Possession: 42% - 51% Cards: 3 - 1

1:1

Jul 27, 2024 Club Friendly

Famalicao vs Casa Pia

Possession: 41% - 58% Cards: 0 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Famalicao Compare

Top Goalscorer De Amorim M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Joujou A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.63

Casa Pia Compare

Avg xG / game 0.57

Avg xA / game 0.35

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Famalicao 46 / 100

Casa Pia 21 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Famalicao Casa Pia

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Famalicao or Draw (1X)

Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals

First Half Result Home Win (HT)

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win

Value Edge +21.5%

2.70

Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals

Value Edge +15.2%

2.56

*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Famalicao attacking → ← attacking Casa Pia

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Famalicao scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Casa Pia let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

Famalicao went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Casa Pia lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

47 Points in last 5 29

1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.63

0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 1.13

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66:18	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89:24	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74:25	80
4	Braga	34	16	11	7	64:36	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42:29	56
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47:38	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37:49	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47:64	42
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39:51	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54:57	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35:52	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35:57	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32:41	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37:45	34
15	Estrela da Amadora	34	6	12	16	38:56	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31:57	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27:55	28
18	AFS	34	3	12	19	27:67	21