Sport Picks

Portugal

Liga Portugal 2025/2026 Estadio Municipal de Famalicao

Famalicao

1 - 0

Nacional

Our Tip

Match Events

16'

Matheus Dias

40'

Sa G.

43'

Vallier L.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Famalicao in this Liga Portugal 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Famalicao.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%

Famalicao

Draws

Nacional

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Famalicao

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Famalicao lately — more wins on the board than Nacional.
Win probability leans Famalicao's way, sitting at 90%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 19%

Over 4.5 Goals 9%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.2%

Famalicao Clean Sheet 20%

Nacional Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Famalicao	Nacional
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	14	8
Draws	7	5
Losses	8	16
Goals Scored	1.63	0.88
Goals Conceded	0.63	1
Expected Goals (xG)	1.63	0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	0.63	1.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 21, 2026 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Nacional

Possession: 57% - 43% Cards: 2 - 1

1:0

Nov 1, 2025 Liga Portugal

Nacional vs Famalicao

Possession: 53% - 48% Cards: 3 - 1

0:1

Mar 1, 2025 Liga Portugal

Nacional vs Famalicao

Possession: 57% - 52% Cards: 0 - 4

2:1

Sep 29, 2024 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Nacional

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 1 - 3

0:0

May 16, 2021 Liga Portugal

Famalicao vs Nacional

Possession: 56% - 52% Cards: 2 - 1

3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Famalicao Compare

Top Goalscorer Ba I.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 1.25

Avg xA / game 0.81

Nacional Compare

Avg xG / game 0.8

Avg xA / game 0.49

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Famalicao 85 / 100

Nacional 10 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Famalicao Nacional

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FAM Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Famalicao has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Famalicao found the back of the net in 76% of recent matches (29 games).

Nacional let in goals in 79% of their last 29 matches.

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Scoring Trends

Famalicao VS Nacional

1.63 Goals Scored 0.88

0.63 Goals Conceded 1

50% Over 1.5 75%

38% Over 2.5 25%

38% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Porto	34	28	4	2	66:18	88
2	Sporting CP	34	25	7	2	89:24	82
3	Benfica	34	23	11	0	74:25	80
4	Braga	34	16	11	7	64:36	59
5	Famalicao	34	15	11	8	42:29	56
6	Gil Vicente	34	13	11	10	47:38	50
7	Moreirense	34	12	7	15	37:49	43
8	Arouca	34	12	6	16	47:64	42
9	Vitoria Guimaraes	34	12	6	16	39:51	42
10	Estoril	34	10	9	15	54:57	39
11	Alverca	34	10	9	15	35:52	39
12	Rio Ave	34	8	12	14	35:57	36
13	Santa Clara	34	9	9	16	32:41	36
14	Nacional	34	9	7	18	37:45	34
15	Estrela da Amadora	34	6	12	16	38:56	30
16	Casa Pia	34	6	12	16	31:57	30
17	Tondela	34	6	10	18	27:55	28
18	AFS	34	3	12	19	27:67	21