Sport Picks
Match Events
25'
25'
Eyasu T.
80'
80'
Eyasu T.
AI Match Summary
Fasil Kenema in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fasil Kenema.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
51%
15%
34%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fasil Kenema
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
51%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Fasil Kenema lately — more wins on the board than Arba Menche.
- 51% — that's where the model lands on Fasil Kenema taking it.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 25.6%
Fasil Kenema Clean Sheet 68%
Arba Menche Clean Sheet 15%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fasil Kenema | Arba Menche |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 7 |
| Draws | 9 | 10 |
| Losses | 11 | 13 |
| Goals Scored | 0.7 | 0.87 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.87 | 1.23 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.00 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jun 22, 2026 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Arba Menche
2:0
Jan 25, 2026 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Fasil Kenema
2:3
Mar 1, 2025 Premier League
Arba Menche vs Fasil Kenema
1:0
Oct 29, 2024 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Arba Menche
0:1
May 8, 2023 Premier League
Fasil Kenema vs Arba Menche
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fasil Kenema Compare
Top Goalscorer Eyasu T.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 0.77
Avg xA / game 0.5
Arba Menche Compare
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fasil Kenema 77 / 100
Arba Menche 15 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fasil Kenema Arba Menche
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fasil Kenema Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Arba Menche let in goals in 67% of their last 30 matches.
Historical meetings average 2.20 goals per match.
Fasil Kenema has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Difficult form: Arba Menche registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Fasil Kenema VS Arba Menche
1 Goals Scored 1.13
1.13 Goals Conceded 1
63% Over 1.5 75%
38% Over 2.5 38%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Fasil Kenema
(Home) 01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
26 Jun
St. Georges
1 : 0 Fasil Kenema
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Hadiya Hossana
0 : 1 Fasil Kenema
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1 Sheger Ketema FC
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Fasil Kenema
1 : 0 Ethiopian Insurance
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
29 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 1 Sheger Ketema FC
16 May
Fasil Kenema
3 : 1 Adama City
06 May
Fasil Kenema
0 : 2 Bahir Dar Kenema
Page 1 of 3
Arba Menche
(Away) 01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1 Arba Menche
26 Jun
Arba Menche
0 : 1 Welwalo Adigrat
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
15 Jun
Arba Menche
2 : 0 Shire Endaselassie
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 6
01 Jul
Dire Dawa
2 : 1 Arba Menche
22 Jun
Fasil Kenema
2 : 0 Arba Menche
28 May
Mechal SC
1 : 2 Arba Menche
16 May
Hawassa
0 : 0 Arba Menche
05 May
Mekelle 70 Enderta FC
0 : 2 Arba Menche
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sidama Bunna | 38 | 19 | 11 | 8 | 43:23 | 68 |
| 2 | Negele Arsi Ketema FC | 38 | 15 | 15 | 8 | 37:30 | 60 |
| 3 | Mechal SC | 38 | 14 | 15 | 9 | 44:31 | 57 |
| 4 | Fasil Kenema | 38 | 14 | 13 | 11 | 28:28 | 55 |
| 5 | Ethio Electric S.C. | 38 | 13 | 15 | 10 | 32:26 | 54 |
| 6 | St. Georges | 38 | 14 | 12 | 12 | 33:31 | 54 |
| 7 | Welayta Dicha | 38 | 11 | 18 | 9 | 37:31 | 51 |
| 8 | Ethiopia Bunna (Ethiopian Coffee) | 38 | 13 | 12 | 13 | 40:39 | 51 |
| 9 | Hawassa | 38 | 12 | 14 | 12 | 37:32 | 50 |
| 10 | Sheger Ketema FC | 38 | 11 | 17 | 10 | 34:31 | 50 |
| 11 | Bahir Dar Kenema | 38 | 9 | 21 | 8 | 28:28 | 48 |
| 12 | Hadiya Hossana | 38 | 11 | 15 | 12 | 31:35 | 48 |
| 13 | Ethiopia Nigd Bank | 38 | 11 | 14 | 13 | 45:45 | 47 |
| 14 | Ethiopian Insurance | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 30:31 | 46 |
| 15 | Adama City | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 35:39 | 46 |
| 16 | Welwalo Adigrat | 38 | 10 | 16 | 12 | 32:36 | 46 |
| 17 | Shire Endaselassie | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 24:32 | 42 |
| 18 | Dire Dawa | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | 27:41 | 42 |
| 19 | Mekelle 70 Enderta FC | 38 | 8 | 16 | 14 | 26:38 | 40 |
| 20 | Arba Menche | 38 | 7 | 14 | 17 | 30:46 | 35 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League (Qualification)
Promotion - CAF Confederation Cup (Qualification)
