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Fatima vs GD Os Nazarenos - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Fatima host GD Os Nazarenos in the Campeonato de Portugal - Group C. Both sides' recent runs tell most of the story. Recent numbers: Fatima at 1.31 goals for, 1 against; GD Os Nazarenos at 0.33 for, 2.56 against. These two haven't met recently, so form does most of the talking. xG projections (1.77 - 0.65) back Fatima to edge this. The model's pick is Home (1) to win or Over 2.5 goals.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

85%
Fatima
15%
Draws
0%
GD Os Nazarenos
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • Fatima carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Fatima are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 21%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 64.6%
Fatima Clean Sheet 20%
GD Os Nazarenos Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fatima GD Os Nazarenos
Matches Played 32 9
Wins 13 2
Draws 9 0
Losses 10 7
Goals Scored 1.31 0.33
Goals Conceded 1 2.56
Expected Goals (xG) 1.77 0.65
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fatima 85 / 100
GD Os Nazarenos 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fatima GD Os Nazarenos

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fatima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Difficult form: GD Os Nazarenos registered 5 defeats in their last 5 games.

Fatima found the back of the net in 69% of recent matches (32 games).

GD Os Nazarenos has conceded goals in 78% of their last 9 outings.

Fatima went unbeaten in 3 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fatima VS GD Os Nazarenos
1.38 Goals Scored 0.17
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.17
75% Over 1.5 67%
38% Over 2.5 67%
25% Over 3.5 17%

Recent Form & Match History

Fatima

(Home)
20 Sept
Fatima
4 : 1
Vinhais
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
Page 1 of 7

GD Os Nazarenos

(Away)
13 Sept
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Os Marialvas
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
30 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 3
Vitoria Sernache
23 Aug
GD Os Nazarenos
0 : 1
O Elvas CAD
16 Aug
Mortagua FC
3 : 1
GD Os Nazarenos
Page 1 of 2

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 O Elvas CAD 4 3 1 0 6:2 10
3 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
4 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
5 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Alverca B 4 1 0 3 6:4 3
12 Sertanense 4 0 2 2 3:7 2
13 Fazendense 4 0 1 3 5:12 1
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)