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Fatima vs Malveira

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Soares Santos M.
52' Event
Moura F.
76' Event
Goncalves D.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group C game between Fatima and Malveira finished 5-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fatima.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
Fatima
15%
Draws
26%
Malveira
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fatima come out ahead of Malveira on wins alone.
  • Fatima are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%
Malveira Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fatima Malveira
Matches Played 32 31
Wins 12 11
Draws 9 10
Losses 11 10
Goals Scored 1.28 1.29
Goals Conceded 1.09 1.23
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 23, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Malveira
5:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fatima Compare

Top Goalscorer Soares Santos M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Moura F.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Malveira Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fatima 95 / 100
Malveira 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fatima Malveira

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fatima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

H2H data points to 5.00 goals as a typical output.

Attacking prowess: Fatima scored in 66% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Malveira conceded in 74% of 31 recent games.

Solid form: Fatima remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fatima VS Malveira
2.5 Goals Scored 0.63
1 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Fatima

(Home)
20 Sept
Fatima
4 : 1
Vinhais
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
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Malveira

(Away)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
06 Sept
Malveira
3 : 0
GD Os Nazarenos
29 Aug
Malveira
2 : 3
Mafra
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
Malveira
0 : 1
Os Marialvas
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Mortagua FC 4 3 1 0 9:4 10
2 Oliveira Hospital 4 3 0 1 6:4 9
3 Os Marialvas 4 3 0 1 8:2 9
4 Uniao Da Serra 4 2 2 0 6:4 8
5 O Elvas CAD 3 2 1 0 4:2 7
6 Naval 1893 4 2 0 2 6:4 6
7 Nogueirense 4 1 3 0 8:7 6
8 SB Castelo Branco 4 2 0 2 7:9 6
9 Fatima 4 1 1 2 6:5 4
10 Malveira 4 1 1 2 4:7 4
11 Sertanense 3 0 2 1 3:5 2
12 Fazendense 3 0 1 2 5:7 1
13 Alverca B 3 0 0 3 1:4 0
14 GD Os Nazarenos 4 0 0 4 1:10 0
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Campeonato de Portugal - Relegation Group 2026/2027 (Main)