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Fatima vs SC Lusitania

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

13' Event
Freitas T.
23' Event
Duarte C.

AI Match Summary

Fatima in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fatima.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

70%
Fatima
20%
Draws
10%
SC Lusitania
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

70% / High Confidence
  • Fatima have won more games recently than SC Lusitania.
  • Model gives Fatima a 70% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and SC Lusitania have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 80.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%
SC Lusitania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fatima SC Lusitania
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 10 5
Draws 8 6
Losses 11 19
Goals Scored 1.21 0.93
Goals Conceded 1.14 1.87
Expected Goals (xG) 1.83 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jan 18, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs SC Lusitania
2:0
Nov 16, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
SC Lusitania vs Fatima
2:1
Jan 21, 2018 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
SC Lusitania vs Fatima
1:0
Aug 27, 2017 Campeonato de Portugal - Group D
Fatima vs SC Lusitania
0:2
Sep 6, 2014 Taça de Portugal
SC Lusitania vs Fatima
3:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fatima Compare

Top Goalscorer Freitas T.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Duarte C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.41
Avg xA / game 0.92

SC Lusitania Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fatima 95 / 100
SC Lusitania 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fatima SC Lusitania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fatima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: SC Lusitania conceded in 90% of 30 recent games.

Attacking prowess: Fatima scored in 62% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: Fatima stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fatima VS SC Lusitania
1.38 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.29
75% Over 1.5 86%
38% Over 2.5 57%
25% Over 3.5 43%

Recent Form & Match History

Fatima

(Home)
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
O Elvas CAD
1 : 1
Fatima
Page 1 of 6

SC Lusitania

(Away)
18 Apr
GD Peniche
5 : 1
SC Lusitania
12 Apr
SC Lusitania
1 : 2
Oliveira Hospital
04 Apr
Marinhense
1 : 1
SC Lusitania
22 Mar
Lajense
3 : 1
SC Lusitania
15 Mar
SC Lusitania
0 : 1
Uniao Da Serra
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vitoria Sernache 26 16 7 3 33:12 55
2 Oliveira Hospital 26 14 8 4 39:13 50
3 Naval 1893 26 14 6 6 36:23 48
4 SB Castelo Branco 26 14 4 8 43:26 46
5 Uniao Da Serra 26 12 8 6 38:27 44
6 Mortagua FC 26 11 6 9 23:26 39
7 Os Marialvas 26 10 6 10 33:28 36
8 Fatima 26 8 8 10 27:29 32
9 Lajense 26 8 8 10 37:37 32
10 GD Peniche 26 8 6 12 34:43 30
11 Samora Correia 26 8 5 13 27:35 29
12 Marinhense 26 5 9 12 20:38 24
13 Electrico FC 26 5 4 17 33:62 19
14 SC Lusitania 26 4 5 17 24:48 17
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)