Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fatima vs Sertanense

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025
Our Tip

Match Events

17' Event
Martins T.
21'
Soares Santos M.
68' Event
Picarra G.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

54%
Fatima
30%
Draws
16%
Sertanense
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: Fatima

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

54% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Fatima lately — more wins on the board than Sertanense.
  • 54% — that's where the model lands on Fatima taking it.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group C 2024/2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 75%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28.400000000000002%
Fatima Clean Sheet 68%
Sertanense Clean Sheet 12%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fatima Sertanense
Matches Played 43 32
Wins 19 5
Draws 12 12
Losses 12 15
Goals Scored 1.23 0.88
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.19 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 23, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Sertanense
1:1
Oct 27, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Fatima
0:1
Feb 24, 2020 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Fatima
1:0
Oct 5, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Fatima vs Sertanense
0:2
Jan 27, 2019 Campeonato de Portugal - Group C
Sertanense vs Fatima
0:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fatima Compare

Top Goalscorer Martins T.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.92
Avg xA / game 0.59

Sertanense Compare

Top Goalscorer Picarra G.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fatima 77 / 100
Sertanense 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fatima Sertanense

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Fatima Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Sertanense let in goals in 84% of their last 32 matches.

Fatima found the back of the net in 67% of recent matches (43 games).

Fatima has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Difficult form: Sertanense registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fatima VS Sertanense
0.88 Goals Scored 0.75
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 25%
25% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Fatima

(Home)
13 Sept
Fatima
0 : 1
Oliveira Hospital
06 Sept
Os Marialvas
3 : 0
Fatima
29 Aug
Fatima
3 : 1
SB Castelo Branco
23 Aug
Fatima
5 : 0
Malveira
16 Aug
O Elvas CAD
1 : 1
Fatima
Page 1 of 9

Sertanense

(Away)
13 Sept
Sertanense
1 : 1
Malveira
30 Aug
Alcains
1 : 0
Sertanense
23 Aug
Sertanense
1 : 3
Mortagua FC
16 Aug
Nogueirense
1 : 1
Sertanense
13 Apr
SB Castelo Branco
1 : 0
Sertanense
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 O Elvas CAD 26 20 5 1 41:10 65
2 Fatima 26 14 7 5 30:12 49
3 Arronches Benfica 26 13 9 4 27:17 48
4 GD Peniche 26 10 9 7 31:23 39
5 Os Marialvas 26 9 10 7 30:28 37
6 Mortagua FC 26 8 13 5 23:21 37
7 Marinhense 26 9 9 8 24:21 36
8 Alverca B 26 9 8 9 28:25 35
9 SB Castelo Branco 26 8 10 8 23:21 34
10 SC Pombal 26 8 8 10 29:34 32
11 Uniao de Coimbra 26 6 7 13 26:44 25
12 Sertanense 26 4 9 13 23:33 21
13 Alcains 26 4 6 16 17:36 18
14 Pero Pinheiro 26 2 6 18 12:39 12
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2024/2025 (Promotion Group)