Sport Picks
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Peru
Liga 1 Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA), Arequipa 
Match Events
28'
28'
Quagliata N.
29'
29'
Minda K.
39'
39'
Cabellos C.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 1 game between FBC Melgar and Sporting Cristal finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FBC Melgar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
28%
20%
52%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Sporting Cristal
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
52%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sporting Cristal come out ahead of FBC Melgar on wins alone.
- Model gives Sporting Cristal a 52% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- FBC Melgar have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 38%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.2%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 13%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 11%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 29 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 15 |
| Draws | 10 | 5 |
| Losses | 9 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.41 | 1.73 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.17 | 1.1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.25 | 1.69 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:2
Aug 10, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
1:0
Aug 22, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FBC Melgar Compare
Top Goalscorer Quagliata N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63
Sporting Cristal Compare
Top Goalscorer Avila I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 0.94
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FBC Melgar 10 / 100
Sporting Cristal 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FBC Melgar Sporting Cristal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Sporting Cristal Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FBC Melgar scored in 79% of their last 29 games.
Sporting Cristal let in goals in 70% of their last 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
FBC Melgar has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
FBC Melgar VS Sporting Cristal
1.38 Goals Scored 2.5
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 75%
13% Over 3.5 63%
Recent Form & Match History
FBC Melgar
(Home) 20 Sept
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 Sport Boys
12 Sept
Cusco
0 : 1 FBC Melgar
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
01 Sept
Atletico Grau
1 : 0 FBC Melgar
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 A. Lima
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 Sport Boys
06 Sept
FBC Melgar
3 : 0 AD Tarma
23 Aug
FBC Melgar
1 : 1 A. Lima
09 Aug
FBC Melgar
2 : 4 FC Cajamarca
26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
Page 1 of 3
Sporting Cristal
(Away) 01 Oct
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0 AD Tarma
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1 Sporting Cristal
19 Sept
Sporting Cristal
3 : 1 Atletico Grau
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2 Sporting Cristal
06 Sept
Sporting Cristal
5 : 0 Los Chankas
Page 1 of 6
27 Sept
AD Tarma
0 : 1 Sporting Cristal
13 Sept
Moquegua
1 : 2 Sporting Cristal
30 Aug
Sport Boys
1 : 0 Sporting Cristal
21 Aug
Alianza Atl.
3 : 1 Sporting Cristal
08 Aug
Universitario de Deportes
1 : 1 Sporting Cristal
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 18:6 | 22 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 19:16 | 20 |
| 3 | Sporting Cristal | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:10 | 19 |
| 4 | Alianza Atl. | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 20:17 | 19 |
| 5 | Sport Huancayo | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 16:13 | 19 |
| 6 | Juan Pablo II | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20:12 | 18 |
| 7 | FBC Melgar | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 16:9 | 18 |
| 8 | Sport Boys | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 14:7 | 18 |
| 9 | Cusco | 10 | 6 | 0 | 4 | 19:14 | 18 |
| 10 | Atletico Grau | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 14:13 | 17 |
| 11 | A. Lima | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 14:10 | 16 |
| 12 | Cienciano | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 14:18 | 11 |
| 13 | FC Cajamarca | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 18:24 | 10 |
| 14 | Comerciantes Unidos | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 17:18 | 9 |
| 15 | Los Chankas | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 11:24 | 9 |
| 16 | Moquegua | 11 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 7:19 | 7 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7:21 | 5 |
| 18 | Cajamarca | 10 | 0 | 2 | 8 | 11:24 | 2 |
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)
