Sport Picks
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
Peru
Liga 1 Estadio de la Universidad Nacional San Agustin (UNSA), Arequipa 
Match Events
28'
28'
Quagliata N.
29'
29'
Minda K.
39'
39'
Cabellos C.
AI Match Summary
The Liga 1 game between FBC Melgar and Sporting Cristal finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FBC Melgar.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
40%
33%
27%
Draw rate projection: 33% Favored: FBC Melgar
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
70%
/ Medium Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Sporting Cristal come out ahead of FBC Melgar on wins alone.
- Model gives FBC Melgar a 40% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- FBC Melgar have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
FBC Melgar Clean Sheet 19%
Sporting Cristal Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FBC Melgar | Sporting Cristal |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 31 | 37 |
| Wins | 13 | 16 |
| Draws | 9 | 7 |
| Losses | 9 | 14 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 1.5 |
| Goals Conceded | 1 | 1.13 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.00 | 1.13 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 26, 2026 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
2:1
Feb 8, 2026 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:2
Aug 10, 2025 Liga 1
Sporting Cristal vs FBC Melgar
1:0
Mar 8, 2025 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
1:0
Aug 22, 2024 Liga 1
FBC Melgar vs Sporting Cristal
2:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FBC Melgar Compare
Top Goalscorer Quagliata N.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
Sporting Cristal Compare
Top Goalscorer Avila I.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FBC Melgar 40 / 100
Sporting Cristal 26 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FBC Melgar Sporting Cristal
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick MEL Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FBC Melgar scored in 81% of their last 31 games.
FBC Melgar went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.
Sporting Cristal has conceded goals in 76% of their last 37 outings.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Scoring Trends
FBC Melgar VS Sporting Cristal
1.5 Goals Scored 1.5
1 Goals Conceded 1.13
75% Over 1.5 88%
50% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
FBC Melgar
(Home) 26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
18 Jul
Cienciano
1 : 3 FBC Melgar
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0 Moquegua
18 Jun
LDU Quito
0 : 0 FBC Melgar
17 Jun
LDU Quito
1 : 1 FBC Melgar
Page 1 of 7
26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
29 Jun
FBC Melgar
0 : 0 Moquegua
31 May
FBC Melgar
3 : 1 Alianza Atl.
16 May
FBC Melgar
4 : 1 Sport Huancayo
03 May
FBC Melgar
2 : 0 Cajamarca
Page 1 of 3
Sporting Cristal
(Away) 26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
23 Jul
Sporting Cristal
0 : 0 Bragantino
17 Jul
Sporting Cristal
1 : 0 Deportivo Garcilaso
11 Jul
Sporting Cristal
2 : 1 Tacna Heroica
27 Jun
Sporting Cristal
2 : 0 Union Comercio
Page 1 of 8
26 Jul
FBC Melgar
2 : 1 Sporting Cristal
21 Jun
Estudiantil CNI
1 : 2 Sporting Cristal
13 Jun
Comerciantes FC
1 : 1 Sporting Cristal
31 May
Cienciano
3 : 2 Sporting Cristal
28 May
Cerro Porteno
2 : 0 Sporting Cristal
Page 1 of 4
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FBC Melgar | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5:2 | 6 |
| 2 | Universitario de Deportes | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4:2 | 6 |
| 3 | Juan Pablo II | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:2 | 4 |
| 4 | A. Lima | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4:3 | 4 |
| 5 | Cusco | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5:3 | 3 |
| 6 | Sport Huancayo | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:2 | 3 |
| 7 | Sport Boys | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 | Atletico Grau | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3:3 | 3 |
| 9 | Sporting Cristal | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 10 | Deportivo Garcilaso | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:2 | 3 |
| 11 | Alianza Atl. | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4:5 | 3 |
| 12 | Los Chankas | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2:3 | 3 |
| 13 | Comerciantes Unidos | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 4:4 | 2 |
| 14 | Moquegua | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2:2 | 2 |
| 15 | FC Cajamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3:4 | 1 |
| 16 | Cajamarca | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1:3 | 1 |
| 17 | AD Tarma | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:4 | 0 |
| 18 | Cienciano | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1:5 | 0 |
Promotion - Liga 1 (Play Offs)
