Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC 08 Homburg vs Mainz II

Germany Germany

Regionalliga Sudwest
Our Tip

Match Events

8' Event
Derstroff J.
53' Event
Celik B.
(Penalty)
74' Event
Celik B.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

FC 08 Homburg in this Regionalliga Sudwest matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC 08 Homburg.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

58%
FC 08 Homburg
20%
Draws
22%
Mainz II
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC 08 Homburg

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

58% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FC 08 Homburg lately — more wins on the board than Mainz II.
  • FC 08 Homburg are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 88%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%
FC 08 Homburg Clean Sheet 20%
Mainz II Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC 08 Homburg Mainz II
Matches Played 29 27
Wins 15 11
Draws 5 5
Losses 9 11
Goals Scored 1.86 1.3
Goals Conceded 1.34 1.41
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 8, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Mainz II
2:1
Mar 22, 2026 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Mainz II
0:1
Sep 20, 2025 Regionalliga Sudwest
Mainz II vs FC 08 Homburg
2:2
Feb 15, 2025 Club Friendly
Mainz II vs FC 08 Homburg
0:0
Dec 8, 2024 Regionalliga Sudwest
FC 08 Homburg vs Mainz II
4:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC 08 Homburg Compare

Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Mainz II Compare

Top Goalscorer Derstroff J.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.03
Avg xA / game 0.63

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC 08 Homburg 85 / 100
Mainz II 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC 08 Homburg Mainz II

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC 08 Homburg Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC 08 Homburg found the back of the net in 79% of recent matches (29 games).

Mainz II let in goals in 74% of their last 27 matches.

H2H data points to 2.40 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: FC 08 Homburg stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC 08 Homburg VS Mainz II
1.75 Goals Scored 1
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.13
88% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 88%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC 08 Homburg

(Home)
19 Sept
FC 08 Homburg
2 : 2
Kassel
12 Sept
Eintracht Frankfurt II
1 : 2
FC 08 Homburg
09 Sept
FC 08 Homburg
2 : 1
Kaiserslautern II
06 Sept
VfR Mannheim
1 : 1
FC 08 Homburg
29 Aug
FC 08 Homburg
0 : 1
Stutt. Kickers
Page 1 of 6

Mainz II

(Away)
19 Sept
Mainz II
0 : 1
Kaiserslautern II
12 Sept
Freiberg
5 : 0
Mainz II
09 Sept
Mainz II
1 : 2
VfR Mannheim
05 Sept
Stutt. Kickers
1 : 2
Mainz II
30 Aug
Mainz II
1 : 3
Aalen
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Kickers Offenbach 8 6 1 1 19:8 19
2 Freiberg 8 5 3 0 22:7 18
3 Stutt. Kickers 8 5 1 2 15:11 16
4 FC 08 Homburg 8 4 2 2 12:11 14
5 Freiburg II 8 3 4 1 16:11 13
6 Eintracht Trier 8 4 1 3 9:7 13
7 FSV Frankfurt 8 3 3 2 13:9 12
8 Aalen 8 3 3 2 11:9 12
9 VfR Mannheim 8 2 5 1 9:8 11
10 Kassel 8 3 1 4 14:15 10
11 Eintracht Frankfurt II 8 3 1 4 11:12 10
12 TSV Steinbach Haiger 8 2 3 3 12:13 9
13 Sandhausen 8 2 3 3 13:18 9
14 Kaiserslautern II 8 2 2 4 6:17 8
15 Astoria Walldorf 8 1 3 4 10:15 6
16 Mainz II 8 2 0 6 8:18 6
17 Fulda-Lehnerz 8 1 2 5 12:16 5
18 Ulm 8 0 4 4 11:18 4
Promotion - 3. Liga 2027/2028 (Main)