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FC Alpendorada vs Leca

Portugal Portugal

Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Ribeiro D.
84' Event
Borges M.

AI Match Summary

The Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 game between FC Alpendorada and Leca finished 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

39%
FC Alpendorada
15%
Draws
46%
Leca
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Leca

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Leca come out ahead of FC Alpendorada on wins alone.
  • FC Alpendorada are the model's pick here, at 36%.
  • Regular Campeonato de Portugal - Group B 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
FC Alpendorada Clean Sheet 17%
Leca Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Alpendorada Leca
Matches Played 30 31
Wins 11 16
Draws 10 10
Losses 9 5
Goals Scored 1.3 1.87
Goals Conceded 1.1 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.27 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 8, 2026 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
FC Alpendorada vs Leca
1:1
Sep 14, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs FC Alpendorada
0:0
Jan 19, 2025 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
FC Alpendorada vs Leca
1:1
Aug 25, 2024 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs FC Alpendorada
3:0
Feb 12, 2023 Campeonato de Portugal - Group B
Leca vs FC Alpendorada
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Alpendorada Compare

Top Goalscorer Borges M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.98
Avg xA / game 0.64

Leca Compare

Top Goalscorer Ribeiro D.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Alpendorada 36 / 100
Leca 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Alpendorada Leca

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Alpendorada found the back of the net in 70% of recent matches (30 games).

Leca let in goals in 74% of their last 31 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.60 goals per match.

Solid form: FC Alpendorada remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Alpendorada VS Leca
1.17 Goals Scored 1.25
1.5 Goals Conceded 1.38
67% Over 1.5 63%
67% Over 2.5 50%
33% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Alpendorada

(Home)
13 Sept
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Machico
06 Sept
Sanjoanense
3 : 1
FC Alpendorada
30 Aug
Rebordosa
2 : 3
FC Alpendorada
23 Aug
FC Alpendorada
1 : 2
Camacha
16 Aug
Guarda FC
0 : 1
FC Alpendorada
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Leca

(Away)
12 Sept
Trofense
1 : 4
Leca
06 Sept
Leca
0 : 3
AD Fafe
23 Aug
Paredes
1 : 2
Leca
15 Aug
Vitoria Guimaraes B
2 : 0
Leca
09 Aug
Leca
1 : 1
Sao Joao de Ver
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Rebordosa 26 17 7 2 41:17 58
2 Leca 26 14 9 3 50:23 51
3 Cinfaes 26 10 10 6 33:21 40
4 Beira Mar 26 10 8 8 30:22 38
5 FC Alpendorada 26 9 11 6 30:22 38
6 Florgrade 26 9 10 7 28:28 37
7 Vila Mea 26 7 13 6 29:28 34
8 Uniao Lamas 26 9 6 11 27:33 33
9 SC Salgueiros 26 7 11 8 20:19 32
10 Anadia 26 7 9 10 27:33 30
11 Aparecida 26 9 4 13 36:51 28
12 GD Resende 26 6 10 10 27:31 28
13 SC Vila Real 26 5 12 9 23:30 27
14 CD Gouveia 26 1 4 21 14:57 7
Promotion - Campeonato de Portugal - Group A 2025/2026 (Promotion Group)