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FC Arlanda vs FC Jarfalla - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Sweden Sweden

Division 1 - Norra Midgardsvallen, Märsta
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
02:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Arlanda host FC Jarfalla in the Division 1 - Norra. This matchup has a clear pattern when you look at past meetings. FC Jarfalla have shipped 2.13 goals a game lately, while FC Arlanda have conceded 1.11 and scored 1.96. Past meetings favor FC Arlanda slightly — 5-0-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 23, 2026, ending 0:2. xG projections (2.25 - 1.25) back FC Arlanda to edge this. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

64%
FC Arlanda
15%
Draws
21%
FC Jarfalla
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Arlanda

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

64% / High Confidence
  • FC Jarfalla haven't matched FC Arlanda's recent run of results.
  • Win probability leans FC Arlanda's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors FC Arlanda here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
FC Arlanda Clean Sheet 19%
FC Jarfalla Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Arlanda FC Jarfalla
Matches Played 28 30
Wins 16 7
Draws 6 5
Losses 6 18
Goals Scored 1.96 1.37
Goals Conceded 1.11 2.13
Expected Goals (xG) 2.25 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 23, 2026 Svenska Cupen
FC Jarfalla vs FC Arlanda
0:2
Jun 13, 2026 Division 1 - Norra
FC Jarfalla vs FC Arlanda
2:3
Sep 15, 2024 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
FC Jarfalla vs FC Arlanda
0:1
May 18, 2024 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
FC Arlanda vs FC Jarfalla
3:0
Oct 7, 2023 Division 2 - Norra Svealand
FC Arlanda vs FC Jarfalla
2:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Arlanda 85 / 100
FC Jarfalla 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Arlanda FC Jarfalla

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Arlanda Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FC Arlanda scored in 82% of their last 28 outings.

FC Jarfalla's defensive record shows goals conceded in 87% of 30 matches.

Games between these two average 2.80 goals.

Recent resilience: FC Arlanda stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Arlanda VS FC Jarfalla
2.25 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 2.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 63%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Arlanda

(Home)
04 Oct
Vasalund
1 : 4
FC Arlanda
27 Sept
FC Arlanda
2 : 0
Enkopings SK
21 Sept
FC Arlanda
4 : 2
Hammarby TFF
16 Sept
Gefle
0 : 2
FC Arlanda
12 Sept
Karlbergs
1 : 0
FC Arlanda
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FC Jarfalla

(Away)
03 Oct
IFK Stocksund
1 : 1
FC Jarfalla
26 Sept
FC Jarfalla
2 : 4
AFC Eskilstuna
20 Sept
Pitea
3 : 1
FC Jarfalla
17 Sept
FC Jarfalla
5 : 0
Karlbergs
12 Sept
Gefle
3 : 1
FC Jarfalla
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Stockholm Internazionale 25 18 3 4 60:20 57
2 FC Arlanda 25 14 6 5 46:28 48
3 AFC Eskilstuna 25 14 5 6 47:34 47
4 Hammarby TFF 25 13 6 6 51:25 45
5 FBK Karlstad 25 12 7 6 41:35 43
6 Enkopings SK 25 13 3 9 38:40 42
7 Karlstad 25 11 8 6 37:25 41
8 Assyriska FF 25 9 5 11 43:45 32
9 Umea FC 25 9 5 11 34:41 32
10 Karlbergs 25 9 5 11 33:41 32
11 Gefle 25 9 3 13 29:43 30
12 Sollentuna 26 6 9 11 27:36 27
13 Vasalund 25 7 6 12 36:52 27
14 Pitea 25 5 7 13 30:46 22
15 FC Jarfalla 25 5 4 16 33:55 19
16 IFK Stocksund 26 3 6 17 45:64 15
Promotion - Superettan 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 - Norra (Promotion)
Relegation - Division 1 - Norra (Relegation - Play Offs)