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FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
Our Tip

Match Events

2' Event
Bucha P.
Assist: Barlow T.
7' Event
Abada L.
17' Event
Biel P.
(Penalty)

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this MLS matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

13%
FC Cincinnati
35%
Draws
52%
Charlotte FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Charlotte FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

52% / Medium Confidence
  • Charlotte FC have won more games recently than FC Cincinnati.
  • Win probability leans Charlotte FC's way, sitting at 70%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 25%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78.6%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 10%
Charlotte FC Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Cincinnati Charlotte FC
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 14
Draws 9 5
Losses 10 9
Goals Scored 2.17 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.48 1.29
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 2.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 12, 2026 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC
3:3
May 9, 2026 MLS
Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati
2:2
Aug 10, 2025 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC
0:1
Mar 15, 2025 MLS
Charlotte FC vs FC Cincinnati
2:0
Jul 13, 2024 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs Charlotte FC
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Cincinnati Compare

Top Goalscorer Denkey K.
2 Goals
Assists Leader Bucha P.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Charlotte FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Abada L.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Toklomati I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 2.16
Avg xA / game 1.32

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Cincinnati 14 / 100
Charlotte FC 65 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Cincinnati Charlotte FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Charlotte FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FC Cincinnati scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Charlotte FC let in goals in 75% of their last 28 matches.

Recent resilience: FC Cincinnati stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Cincinnati VS Charlotte FC
1.25 Goals Scored 2.25
2.5 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 88%
75% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Cincinnati

(Home)
26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1
FC Cincinnati
20 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 2
FC Cincinnati
12 Sept
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte FC
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
30 Aug
Nashville SC
4 : 0
FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 6

Charlotte FC

(Away)
26 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 1
Chicago Fire
19 Sept
DC United
1 : 2
Charlotte FC
12 Sept
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte FC
09 Sept
CF Montreal
1 : 2
Charlotte FC
05 Sept
Charlotte FC
0 : 0
Houston Dynamo
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
3 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
4 Chicago Fire 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 27 8 9 10 41:36 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
12 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
13 Toronto FC 27 6 11 10 39:51 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 27 6 6 15 34:54 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)