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FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

USA USA

MLS TQL Stadium, Cincinnati, OH
FC Cincinnati Logo

FC Cincinnati

4 - 2
FT
San Jose Earthquakes Logo

San Jose Earthquakes

Our Tip

Match Events

20'
Smith K.
26' Event
Munie D.
Assist: Werner T.
34' Event
Ramirez Leon B. J.
Assist: Evander
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

The MLS game between FC Cincinnati and San Jose Earthquakes finished 4-2, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Cincinnati.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

20%
FC Cincinnati
35%
Draws
45%
San Jose Earthquakes
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: San Jose Earthquakes

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

45% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and San Jose Earthquakes come out ahead of FC Cincinnati on wins alone.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 44%.
  • Regular MLS form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 81%
FC Cincinnati Clean Sheet 10%
San Jose Earthquakes Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Cincinnati San Jose Earthquakes
Matches Played 28 28
Wins 11 12
Draws 9 7
Losses 8 9
Goals Scored 2.32 1.82
Goals Conceded 2.36 1.61
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 1.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 1, 2026 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
4:2
Jun 16, 2024 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati
2:4
Sep 10, 2022 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
6:0
Apr 26, 2020 MLS
FC Cincinnati vs San Jose Earthquakes
0:0
May 5, 2019 MLS
San Jose Earthquakes vs FC Cincinnati
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Cincinnati Compare

Top Goalscorer Ramirez Leon B. J.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barlow T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

San Jose Earthquakes Compare

Top Goalscorer Munie D.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Werner T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.71
Avg xA / game 1.04

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Cincinnati 34 / 100
San Jose Earthquakes 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Cincinnati San Jose Earthquakes

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick San Jose Earthquakes Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:8
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Cincinnati found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (28 games).

San Jose Earthquakes has conceded goals in 82% of their last 28 outings.

Games between these two average 3.80 goals.

Recent resilience: FC Cincinnati stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Cincinnati VS San Jose Earthquakes
1.25 Goals Scored 1.38
2.38 Goals Conceded 1.5
88% Over 1.5 63%
75% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Cincinnati

(Home)
10 Oct
Atlanta United
1 : 3
FC Cincinnati
26 Sept
CF Montreal
3 : 1
FC Cincinnati
20 Sept
Houston Dynamo
2 : 2
FC Cincinnati
12 Sept
FC Cincinnati
3 : 3
Charlotte FC
09 Sept
Philadelphia Union
5 : 0
FC Cincinnati
Page 1 of 6

San Jose Earthquakes

(Away)
11 Oct
Colorado Rapids
1 : 1
San Jose Earthquakes
27 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
3 : 1
Portland Timbers
19 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
2 : 2
Los Angeles FC
13 Sept
San Jose Earthquakes
1 : 0
Houston Dynamo
10 Sept
San Diego FC
2 : 3
San Jose Earthquakes
Page 1 of 6

League Standings (Group 1)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Vancouver Whitecaps 27 15 5 7 60:29 50
2 St. Louis City 27 13 8 6 48:36 47
3 FC Dallas 27 13 8 6 50:42 47
4 San Jose Earthquakes 27 13 6 8 49:39 45
5 Houston Dynamo 27 13 5 9 34:32 44
6 Los Angeles FC 28 11 8 9 43:30 41
7 Seattle Sounders 27 10 8 9 35:35 38
8 Colorado Rapids 27 11 3 13 38:38 36
9 Los Angeles Galaxy 28 9 9 10 37:44 36
10 Portland Timbers 27 9 5 13 48:51 32
11 Real Salt Lake 27 9 5 13 40:44 32
12 San Diego FC 27 8 8 11 47:47 32
13 Austin FC 27 7 10 10 35:47 31
14 Minnesota United 27 7 8 12 40:49 29
15 Sporting Kansas City 27 6 3 18 32:65 21
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)

League Standings (Group 2)

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Nashville SC 27 18 6 3 55:21 60
2 Chicago Fire 28 14 6 8 51:40 48
3 New England Revolution 27 14 4 9 45:36 46
4 Inter Miami 27 12 10 5 64:50 46
5 Charlotte FC 27 12 7 8 47:38 43
6 Philadelphia Union 27 11 6 10 54:44 39
7 Orlando City 27 10 4 13 48:64 34
8 New York Red Bulls 27 9 6 12 34:51 33
9 New York City 28 8 9 11 42:38 33
10 FC Cincinnati 26 8 9 9 55:64 33
11 Toronto FC 28 7 11 10 41:52 32
12 DC United 26 6 12 8 34:42 30
13 Columbus Crew 27 8 5 14 39:43 29
14 Atlanta United 27 7 6 14 32:45 27
15 CF Montreal 28 6 6 16 35:56 24
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)
Promotion - MLS (Play Offs)