Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Ekibastuz vs Arys - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

89'
Malikov B.
90' Event
Aitpakayev A.
90' Event
Moldakarayev B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this First League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

0%
FC Ekibastuz
15%
Draws
85%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Arys

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

85% / Very High Confidence
  • FC Ekibastuz have won more games recently than Arys.
  • Win probability leans Arys's way, sitting at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 98%
Over 1.5 Goals 87.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 50%
Over 4.5 Goals 23%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
FC Ekibastuz Clean Sheet 10%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ekibastuz Arys
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 9 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 14 17
Goals Scored 1.32 1.28
Goals Conceded 2.36 2.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 2.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 3, 2026 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
3:1
Jun 12, 2026 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
1:1
Aug 30, 2024 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
1:2
Jul 5, 2024 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
3:0
Oct 24, 2023 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ekibastuz Compare

Top Goalscorer Aitpakayev A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Moldakarayev B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.94
Avg xA / game 1.18

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ekibastuz 10 / 100
Arys 83 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ekibastuz Arys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Arys Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Arys conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

FC Ekibastuz's goal record stands at 75% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Arys registered 1 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Ekibastuz VS Arys
1.75 Goals Scored 1.25
3 Goals Conceded 1.25
100% Over 1.5 75%
88% Over 2.5 50%
75% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Ekibastuz

(Home)
18 Sept
FC Astana 2
7 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
11 Sept
FC Ekibastuz
1 : 5
Tobol 2
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
FC Ekibastuz
2 : 4
Turan
20 Aug
Akademiya Ontustik
3 : 2
FC Ekibastuz
Page 1 of 6

Arys

(Away)
08 Oct
Yelimay Semey 2
2 : 3
Arys
17 Sept
Arys
4 : 1
Aktobe 2
11 Sept
Kaspij Aktau 2
1 : 2
Arys
03 Sept
Arys
3 : 1
FC Ekibastuz
27 Aug
Kairat Almaty 2
1 : 0
Arys
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 24 21 2 1 66:8 65
2 Kairat Almaty 2 23 17 5 1 66:12 56
3 Turan 23 16 2 5 51:21 50
4 Akademiya Ontustik 24 13 4 7 36:29 43
5 FC Astana 2 24 10 3 11 42:49 33
6 Jaiyq 23 9 4 10 21:26 31
7 Taraz 23 8 6 9 30:32 30
8 Kaspij Aktau 2 24 8 4 12 35:41 28
9 Arys 24 8 3 13 32:45 27
10 FC Ekibastuz 24 7 6 11 32:54 27
11 Khan Tengri 24 7 5 12 30:45 26
12 Aktobe 2 24 6 6 12 42:73 24
13 Tobol 2 24 4 5 15 44:61 17
14 Yelimay Semey 2 24 3 3 18 19:50 12
Promotion - Premier League 2027 (Main)