Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Ekibastuz vs Arys

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League
Our Tip

Match Events

89'
Malikov B.
90' Event
Aitpakayev A.
90' Event
Moldakarayev B.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this First League matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
FC Ekibastuz
15%
Draws
26%
Arys
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Ekibastuz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Ekibastuz have won more games recently than Arys.
  • Win probability leans FC Ekibastuz's way, sitting at 80%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 100%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
FC Ekibastuz Clean Sheet 14%
Arys Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ekibastuz Arys
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 6
Draws 5 3
Losses 14 19
Goals Scored 1.21 1.07
Goals Conceded 2.1 2.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.63
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 12, 2026 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
1:1
Aug 30, 2024 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
1:2
Jul 5, 2024 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
3:0
Oct 24, 2023 First League
Arys vs FC Ekibastuz
1:1
Jul 13, 2023 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Arys
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ekibastuz Compare

Top Goalscorer Aitpakayev A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Arys Compare

Top Goalscorer Moldakarayev B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.48
Avg xA / game 0.91

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ekibastuz 75 / 100
Arys 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ekibastuz Arys

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Ekibastuz Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Arys conceded in 89% of 28 recent games.

FC Ekibastuz's goal record stands at 69% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

FC Ekibastuz has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FC Ekibastuz VS Arys
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.88 Goals Conceded 2.25
100% Over 1.5 100%
63% Over 2.5 88%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Ekibastuz

(Home)
14 Aug
FC Ekibastuz
3 : 1
Jaiyq
06 Aug
Aktobe 2
0 : 2
FC Ekibastuz
30 Jul
FC Ekibastuz
2 : 1
Yelimay Semey 2
23 Jul
Kaspij Aktau 2
3 : 0
FC Ekibastuz
16 Jul
FC Ekibastuz
0 : 2
Shakhter Karagandy
Page 1 of 6

Arys

(Away)
15 Aug
Khan Tengri
0 : 0
Arys
07 Aug
Arys
3 : 0
Tobol 2
31 Jul
FC Astana 2
2 : 0
Arys
24 Jul
Shakhter Karagandy
4 : 1
Arys
16 Jul
Arys
0 : 4
Turan
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Shakhter Karagandy 18 16 1 1 51:7 49
2 Kairat Almaty 2 18 13 4 1 56:10 43
3 Turan 18 12 2 4 37:13 38
4 Akademiya Ontustik 18 9 3 6 28:23 30
5 FC Astana 2 18 8 2 8 29:33 26
6 Jaiyq 18 8 2 8 18:23 26
7 FC Ekibastuz 18 7 5 6 24:31 26
8 Taraz 18 7 3 8 23:23 24
9 Kaspij Aktau 2 18 7 3 8 27:31 24
10 Khan Tengri 18 5 3 10 19:32 18
11 Aktobe 2 18 4 5 9 29:58 17
12 Arys 18 4 2 12 19:38 14
13 Yelimay Semey 2 18 3 3 12 14:32 12
14 Tobol 2 18 2 4 12 28:48 10
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