Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Ekibastuz vs Ertis Pavlodar

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

First League 2025
Our Tip

Match Events

10'
Toleuov B.
46'
Sub
Kulbayuly I. In: Abilkairov N.
Out: Kulbayuly I.
46'
Sub
Toleuov B. In: Vasiljev V.
Out: Toleuov B.

AI Match Summary

Ertis Pavlodar in this First League 2025 matchup, with the score ending 1-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ertis Pavlodar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
FC Ekibastuz
22%
Draws
18%
Ertis Pavlodar
Draw rate projection: 22% Favored: FC Ekibastuz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

82% / Very High Confidence
  • Ertis Pavlodar have won more games recently than FC Ekibastuz.
  • FC Ekibastuz are the model's pick here, at 60%.
  • Regular First League 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • History favors Ertis Pavlodar here — 4 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 37.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 17%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 74.6%
FC Ekibastuz Clean Sheet 20%
Ertis Pavlodar Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ekibastuz Ertis Pavlodar
Matches Played 29 31
Wins 10 12
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 10
Goals Scored 1.5 0.75
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.25
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 0.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 24, 2025 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:2
Apr 9, 2025 First League
Ertis Pavlodar vs FC Ekibastuz
4:0
Oct 13, 2018 Club Friendly
Ertis Pavlodar vs FC Ekibastuz
3:0
May 16, 2012 Kazakhstan Cup
FC Ekibastuz vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:4
Aug 31, 2008 Premier League
FC Ekibastuz vs Ertis Pavlodar
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ekibastuz Compare

Top Goalscorer Erken A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Ertis Pavlodar Compare

Top Goalscorer Vasiljev V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tungyshbaev E.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.68
Avg xA / game 0.42

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ekibastuz 58 / 100
Ertis Pavlodar 18 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ekibastuz Ertis Pavlodar

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ertis Pavlodar let in goals in 80% of their last 30 matches.

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

FC Ekibastuz scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

FC Ekibastuz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Ekibastuz VS Ertis Pavlodar
1.5 Goals Scored 0.75
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 25%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Kaspij Aktau26222274:2768
2Ertis Pavlodar26194371:2061
3Altai26174554:2355
4Shakhter Karagandy26165561:3453
5Zhetisay261331044:3542
6Kairat Almaty 2261241058:4240
7Akademiya Ontustik261231144:4439
8Taraz261051143:3835
9AKAS261031342:3933
10FC Ekibastuz26841436:6028
11SD Family26721733:7523
12Khan Tengri26531827:5518
13Aktobe 226371634:6516
14Turkistan26232116:809