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FC Ekibastuz vs Kaspij Aktau

Kazakhstan Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan Cup
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Zulfikarov B.
(Penalty)
74' Event
Petrovic B.
90' Event
Umaev I.
Assist: Zhazmagambetov Z.

AI Match Summary

FC Ekibastuz host Kaspij Aktau in the Kazakhstan Cup. Form suggests where the edge lies here. Recent numbers: FC Ekibastuz at 1.5 goals for, 1.63 against; Kaspij Aktau at 1 for, 1.13 against. Past meetings favor Kaspij Aktau slightly — 2-3-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Apr 9, 2026, ending 0:4. The numbers (1.31 xG vs 1.31) point toward Kaspij Aktau. Kaspij Aktau in a double chance market carries the safer edge.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

36%
FC Ekibastuz
30%
Draws
34%
Kaspij Aktau
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FC Ekibastuz

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • Kaspij Aktau has accumulated more wins in recent fixtures compared to FC Ekibastuz.
  • Model forecasts a 36% win probability edge for FC Ekibastuz.
  • Cup tournament structure in Kazakhstan Cup increases high-stakes performance focus.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 78%
FC Ekibastuz Clean Sheet 18%
Kaspij Aktau Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ekibastuz Kaspij Aktau
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 15
Draws 5 2
Losses 14 11
Goals Scored 1.5 1
Goals Conceded 1.63 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.50 1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 9, 2026 Kazakhstan Cup
FC Ekibastuz vs Kaspij Aktau
0:4
Sep 18, 2025 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Kaspij Aktau
1:3
Jun 20, 2025 First League
Kaspij Aktau vs FC Ekibastuz
5:3
Sep 26, 2024 First League
FC Ekibastuz vs Kaspij Aktau
3:2
Jul 12, 2024 First League
Kaspij Aktau vs FC Ekibastuz
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ekibastuz Compare

Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Kaspij Aktau Compare

Top Goalscorer Petrovic B.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Umaev I.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.91
Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ekibastuz 36 / 100
Kaspij Aktau 33 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ekibastuz Kaspij Aktau

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Ekibastuz scored in 76% of their last 29 games.

Kaspij Aktau let in goals in 71% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 4.80 goals.

FC Ekibastuz went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Kaspij Aktau lost 2 of their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FC Ekibastuz VS Kaspij Aktau
1.5 Goals Scored 1
1.63 Goals Conceded 1.13
88% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 38%
50% Over 3.5 13%

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Akademiya Ontustik2
Ordabasy4
FC Ekibastuz0
Kaspij Aktau4
Jas Qyran0
Atyrau4
Karshiga Almaty0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan1
Arys0
Aktobe4
Turan1
Yelimay Semey4
Jelaev Nan0
Altai2
Taraz0
Ulytau1
Talas0
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Jaiyq1
Kairat Almaty3
BKS1
FC Astana2
Ansat0
Tobol8
Shakhter Karagandy2
Okzhetpes3
Chromtau1
Zhenis4
SD Family-
Ertis Pavlodar-
Khan Tengri0
Kyzylzhar1
1/8-finals
Ordabasy3
Kaspij Aktau0
Atyrau0
Zhetysu Taldykorgan2
Aktobe2
Yelimay Semey1
Altai4
Ulytau3
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Kairat Almaty1
FC Astana1
Tobol2
Okzhetpes2
Zhenis3
Ertis Pavlodar1
Kyzylzhar2
Quarter-finals
Ordabasy1
Zhetysu Taldykorgan0
Aktobe1
Altai2
Kaisar Kyzylorda2
Tobol1
Zhenis2
Kyzylzhar0
Semi-finals
Ordabasy-
Altai-
Kaisar Kyzylorda-
Zhenis-
Final
TBD-
TBD-