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FC Gomel vs Vitebsk

Belarus Belarus

Belarusian Cup Centralnyj Stadion, Gomel
Sat, Jul 25, 2026
VS
03:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

A one-off knockout match in the Belarusian Cup. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. Vitebsk have shipped 1.38 goals a game lately, while FC Gomel have conceded 0.88 and scored 1.13. Past meetings favor FC Gomel slightly — 1-1-3 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Mar 20, 2026, ending 1:1. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 1.13) point toward FC Gomel. The model calls this a Draw — both sides look evenly matched.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
FC Gomel
40%
Draws
29%
Vitebsk
Draw rate projection: 40% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

66% / Medium Confidence
  • FC Gomel carry the better recent record into this one.
  • Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 40%.
  • FC Gomel have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FC Gomel, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%
FC Gomel Clean Sheet 20%
Vitebsk Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Gomel Vitebsk
Matches Played 26 28
Wins 16 9
Draws 6 8
Losses 4 11
Goals Scored 1.13 1.38
Goals Conceded 0.88 1.38
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 1.38

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 20, 2026 Vysshaya Liga
Vitebsk vs FC Gomel
1:1
Feb 28, 2026 Club Friendly
Vitebsk vs FC Gomel
0:0
Sep 15, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
FC Gomel vs Vitebsk
1:0
Apr 26, 2025 Vysshaya Liga
Vitebsk vs FC Gomel
2:0
Feb 23, 2025 Club Friendly
Vitebsk vs FC Gomel
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Gomel 32 / 100
Vitebsk 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Gomel Vitebsk

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FC Gomel scored in 88% of their last 26 outings.

Recent resilience: FC Gomel stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Vitebsk let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

Historical meetings average 1.40 goals per match.

Scoring Trends

FC Gomel VS Vitebsk
1.13 Goals Scored 1.38
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.38
63% Over 1.5 88%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Gomel

(Home)
18 Jul
Niva Dolbizno
2 : 3
FC Gomel
11 Jul
FC Gomel
1 : 1
Neman
02 Jul
BATE
0 : 1
FC Gomel
26 Jun
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
1 : 1
FC Gomel
23 Jun
FC Gomel
0 : 0
Yenisey
Page 1 of 6

Vitebsk

(Away)
18 Jul
Ostrovets
2 : 3
Vitebsk
12 Jul
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk
0 : 3
Vitebsk
04 Jul
Vitebsk
1 : 0
Dnepr Mogilev
27 Jun
Din. Minsk
1 : 1
Vitebsk
20 Jun
Vitebsk
1 : 2
Dynamo Brest
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/32-finals
Shchuchyn3
FK Lida4
TBD-
Zhodino-
BGU Minsk0
Osipovichi2
TBD-
Dnepr Mogilev-
Technolog Mogilev0
FC Slonim6
TBD-
Isloch Minsk-
Polotsk0
Uni X Labs2
TBD-
FK Baranovici-
Bobovnya0
BumProm Gomel2
TBD-
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk-
Leskhoz0
Soligorsk3
TBD-
Neman-
Drut Belynichi0
Orsha7
TBD-
Naftan-
Urozhaynaya0
Molodechno3
TBD-
BATE-
Gazovik Vitebsk1
Volna Pinsk4
TBD-
Slavia Mozyr-
Stanles Pinsk1
Krumkachy4
TBD-
Dynamo Brest-
Neman Mosty1
Niva Dolbizno4
TBD-
FC Gomel-
Krechet0
Ostrovets8
TBD-
Vitebsk-
Ivatsevichi1
Slutsk3
TBD-
Din. Minsk-
Minskoe More0
SKA-1938 Minsk3
TBD-
ML Vitebsk-
Viktoria Maryina Gorka1
Nadezhda Baranovici0
TBD-
Belshina-
Vertical Kalinkovichi0
Smorgon7
TBD-
FC Minsk-
1/16-finals
FK Lida0
Zhodino4
Osipovichi1
Dnepr Mogilev3
FC Slonim0
Isloch Minsk1
Uni X Labs1
FK Baranovici4
BumProm Gomel0
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk1
Soligorsk1
Neman2
Orsha3
Naftan2
Molodechno1
BATE4
Volna Pinsk0
Slavia Mozyr5
Krumkachy0
Dynamo Brest5
Niva Dolbizno2
FC Gomel3
Ostrovets2
Vitebsk3
Slutsk0
Din. Minsk2
SKA-1938 Minsk3
ML Vitebsk5
Viktoria Maryina Gorka1
Belshina8
Smorgon3
FC Minsk4
1/8-finals
Zhodino-
Dnepr Mogilev-
Isloch Minsk-
FK Baranovici-
Arsenal Dzerzhinsk-
Neman-
Orsha-
BATE-
Slavia Mozyr-
Dynamo Brest-
FC Gomel-
Vitebsk-
Din. Minsk-
ML Vitebsk-
Belshina-
FC Minsk-
Quarter-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Semi-finals
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
TBD-
Final
TBD-
TBD-