Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Oryol vs Penza - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Russia Russia

FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Sat, Oct 17, 2026
VS
01:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Oryol host Penza in the FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3. This looks like a genuine coin-flip fixture. FC Oryol have averaged 1.13 scored and 1.97 conceded recently, against Penza's 1.04 scored and 1.82 conceded. Head-to-head, FC Oryol have won 3 to Penza's 2, with 0 draws. They last met on Jun 27, 2026, ending 3:1. Model xG sits at 0.88 vs 1.13, favoring FC Oryol. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

60%
FC Oryol
20%
Draws
20%
Penza
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Oryol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

60% / High Confidence
  • FC Oryol's 1.13 goals per match outpaces what Penza have produced (1.04).
  • 60% — that's where the model lands on FC Oryol taking it.
  • Regular FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 13%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 68.6%
FC Oryol Clean Sheet 20%
Penza Clean Sheet 17%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Oryol Penza
Matches Played 30 28
Wins 8 8
Draws 5 4
Losses 17 16
Goals Scored 1.13 1.04
Goals Conceded 1.97 1.82
Expected Goals (xG) 0.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 27, 2026 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs FC Oryol
3:1
Aug 31, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
FC Oryol vs Penza
1:0
May 10, 2025 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs FC Oryol
3:1
Aug 18, 2024 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
FC Oryol vs Penza
1:0
May 5, 2024 FNL 2 - Division B - Group 3
Penza vs FC Oryol
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Oryol 40 / 100
Penza 28 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Oryol Penza

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Oryol Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Penza let in goals in 79% of their last 28 matches.

H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.

Difficult form: Penza registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: FC Oryol scored in 57% of their last 30 outings.

Scoring Trends

FC Oryol VS Penza
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 38%
13% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Oryol

(Home)
03 Oct
FC Oryol
1 : 0
Strogino Moscow
26 Sept
SKA Khabarovsk 2
0 : 2
FC Oryol
17 Sept
FC Oryol
0 : 2
FK Shumbrat Saransk
12 Sept
Spartak Tambov
3 : 0
FC Oryol
05 Sept
Kursk
3 : 2
FC Oryol
Page 1 of 6

Penza

(Away)
03 Oct
M. Lipetsk
2 : 0
Penza
30 Sept
Ryazan
2 : 0
Penza
26 Sept
Penza
1 : 1
Saturn Ramenskoye
19 Sept
Penza
0 : 0
Arsenal Tula 2
13 Sept
Strogino Moscow
3 : 0
Penza
Page 1 of 6