Sport Picks
Match Events
38'
38'
Kiwior J.
38'
38'
Chiquinho
40'
40'
Bednarek J.
Assist: Veiga G.
AI Match Summary
The Liga Portugal 2025/2026 game between FC Porto and Alverca finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FC Porto.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
54%
15%
31%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FC Porto
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
54%
/ Medium Confidence
- FC Porto carry the better recent record into this one.
- Win probability leans FC Porto's way, sitting at 90%.
- Regular Liga Portugal 2025/2026 form gives a decent read on both sides.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
- History favors FC Porto here — 5 wins from the last 5 head-to-heads.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 12.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 6%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 31.6%
FC Porto Clean Sheet 68%
Alverca Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FC Porto | Alverca |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 28 |
| Wins | 21 | 9 |
| Draws | 4 | 9 |
| Losses | 5 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 1.67 | 1.11 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.73 | 1.32 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.56 | 0.56 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 9, 2026 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Alverca
2:0
May 2, 2026 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Alverca
1:0
Dec 22, 2025 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs FC Porto
0:3
Apr 25, 2004 Liga Portugal
FC Porto vs Alverca
1:0
Dec 22, 2003 Liga Portugal
Alverca vs FC Porto
1:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FC Porto Compare
Top Goalscorer Bednarek J.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78
Alverca Compare
Avg xG / game 0.51
Avg xA / game 0.31
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FC Porto 95 / 100
Alverca 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FC Porto Alverca
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FC Porto Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FC Porto scored in 83% of their last 30 games.
Alverca let in goals in 82% of their last 28 matches.
H2H data points to 2.00 goals as a typical output.
Solid form: FC Porto remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
FC Porto VS Alverca
1.75 Goals Scored 0.75
0.38 Goals Conceded 1.38
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
FC Porto
(Home) 20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
12 Sept
Casa Pia
1 : 4 FC Porto
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2 Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
29 Aug
Academico Viseu
0 : 3 FC Porto
Page 1 of 6
20 Sept
FC Porto
3 : 1 Benfica
08 Sept
FC Porto
0 : 2 Manchester City
04 Sept
FC Porto
2 : 1 Moreirense
23 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Arouca
09 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Alverca
Page 1 of 4
Alverca
(Away) 19 Sept
Alverca
1 : 0 Rio Ave
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
05 Sept
Alverca
1 : 2 Braga
29 Aug
Alverca
1 : 1 Santa Clara
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Alverca
Page 1 of 6
12 Sept
Nacional
1 : 3 Alverca
22 Aug
Sporting CP
3 : 1 Alverca
09 Aug
FC Porto
2 : 0 Alverca
25 Jul
Mafra
1 : 0 Alverca
11 Jul
Leiria
0 : 1 Alverca
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FC Porto | 34 | 28 | 4 | 2 | 66:18 | 88 |
| 2 | Sporting CP | 34 | 25 | 7 | 2 | 89:24 | 82 |
| 3 | Benfica | 34 | 23 | 11 | 0 | 74:25 | 80 |
| 4 | Braga | 34 | 16 | 11 | 7 | 64:36 | 59 |
| 5 | Famalicao | 34 | 15 | 11 | 8 | 42:29 | 56 |
| 6 | Gil Vicente | 34 | 13 | 11 | 10 | 47:38 | 50 |
| 7 | Moreirense | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | 37:49 | 43 |
| 8 | Arouca | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 47:64 | 42 |
| 9 | Vitoria Guimaraes | 34 | 12 | 6 | 16 | 39:51 | 42 |
| 10 | Estoril | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 54:57 | 39 |
| 11 | Alverca | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | 35:52 | 39 |
| 12 | Rio Ave | 34 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 35:57 | 36 |
| 13 | Santa Clara | 34 | 9 | 9 | 16 | 32:41 | 36 |
| 14 | Nacional | 34 | 9 | 7 | 18 | 37:45 | 34 |
| 15 | Estrela da Amadora | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 38:56 | 30 |
| 16 | Casa Pia | 34 | 6 | 12 | 16 | 31:57 | 30 |
| 17 | Tondela | 34 | 6 | 10 | 18 | 27:55 | 28 |
| 18 | AFS | 34 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 27:67 | 21 |
Promotion - Champions League (League phase)
Promotion - Europa League (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League (Qualification)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
Relegation - Liga Portugal 2 (Main)
