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FC Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa

Brazil Brazil

Carioca B2 2025
Sun, Nov 9, 2025
3 - 0
06:00 PM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FC Rio de Janeiro host Barra Mansa in the Carioca B2 2025. History leans heavily one way in this fixture. Barra Mansa have shipped 1.4 goals a game lately, while FC Rio de Janeiro have conceded 2.12 and scored 1.15. Head-to-head, FC Rio de Janeiro have won 2 to Barra Mansa's 1, with 0 draws. They last met on Oct 1, 2026, ending 2:0. The numbers (1.25 xG vs 0.76) point toward Barra Mansa. Home (1) are the model's selection here, or BTTS: GG.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

44%
FC Rio de Janeiro
20%
Draws
36%
Barra Mansa
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: FC Rio de Janeiro

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

44% / Low Confidence
  • Barra Mansa have won more games recently than FC Rio de Janeiro.
  • Win probability leans FC Rio de Janeiro's way, sitting at 80%.
  • Regular Carioca B2 2025 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • These two have met 3 times recently and FC Rio de Janeiro have taken 2 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 65.8%
FC Rio de Janeiro Clean Sheet 20%
Barra Mansa Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa
Matches Played 26 30
Wins 6 8
Draws 3 9
Losses 17 13
Goals Scored 1.15 0.93
Goals Conceded 2.12 1.4
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 1, 2026 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 Carioca B2
FC Rio de Janeiro vs Barra Mansa
3:0
Nov 7, 2024 Carioca B2
Barra Mansa vs FC Rio de Janeiro
4:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Rio de Janeiro 76 / 100
Barra Mansa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Rio de Janeiro Barra Mansa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Rio de Janeiro Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.33 goals when they meet.

Barra Mansa's defensive record shows goals conceded in 63% of 30 matches.

FC Rio de Janeiro's goal record stands at 54% scoring rate across 26 recent games.

Solid form: FC Rio de Janeiro remains unbeaten in 2 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Rio de Janeiro VS Barra Mansa
0.88 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
50% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Rio de Janeiro

(Home)
05 Oct
Paraty
0 : 4
FC Rio de Janeiro
01 Oct
FC Rio de Janeiro
2 : 0
Barra Mansa
27 Sept
Serra Macaense
2 : 1
FC Rio de Janeiro
21 Sept
FC Rio de Janeiro
1 : 3
Santa Cruz RJ
13 Sept
Cardoso Moreira
1 : 0
FC Rio de Janeiro
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Barra Mansa

(Away)
05 Oct
Barra Mansa
0 : 0
Cardoso Moreira
01 Oct
FC Rio de Janeiro
2 : 0
Barra Mansa
28 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 0
Buzios
20 Sept
Paduano EC
2 : 2
Barra Mansa
14 Sept
Barra Mansa
1 : 4
7 de Abril
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Santa Cruz RJ 8 7 1 0 14:3 22
2 Belford Roxo 8 5 1 2 17:8 16
3 Goytacaz 8 5 1 2 13:8 16
4 Macae 8 4 1 3 13:5 13
5 Serra Macaense 8 3 4 1 9:7 13
6 Paraty 8 2 2 4 9:10 8
7 7 de Abril 8 2 2 4 11:13 8
8 FC Rio de Janeiro 8 1 0 7 7:25 3
9 Barra Mansa 8 0 2 6 4:18 2
Promotion - Carioca B2 2025 (Play Offs)
Relegation - Carioca C (Main)