Sport Picks

Estonia

Esiliiga Lasnamäe Sports Complex Stadium

FC Tallinn

0 - 3

Elva

Our Tip

Match Events

37'

Salamatov N.

Own Goal

45'

Jagodinskis R.

Assist: Poldsaar K.

63'

Mbuthia J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Elva in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Elva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

FC Tallinn

Draws

90%

Elva

Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Elva

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence

Form's been kind to Elva lately — more wins on the board than FC Tallinn.
90% — that's where the model lands on Elva taking it.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Elva have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 56.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 25%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 75.8%

FC Tallinn Clean Sheet 10%

Elva Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FC Tallinn	Elva
Matches Played	31	32
Wins	9	14
Draws	6	3
Losses	16	15
Goals Scored	1	1.75
Goals Conceded	2.5	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.75
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.50	1.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Esiliiga

FC Tallinn vs Elva

Possession: 58% - 43% Cards: 1 - 3

0:3

May 7, 2026 Esiliiga

Elva vs FC Tallinn

Possession: 53% - 49% Cards: 0 - 3

2:0

Mar 7, 2026 Esiliiga

FC Tallinn vs Elva

Possession: 43% - 46% Cards: 2 - 2

1:1

Oct 19, 2025 Esiliiga

Elva vs FC Tallinn

Possession: 53% - 54% Cards: 1 - 1

1:0

Aug 16, 2025 Esiliiga

FC Tallinn vs Elva

Possession: 44% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Tallinn Compare

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Elva Compare

Top Goalscorer Jagodinskis R.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Mbuthia J.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.59

Avg xA / game 0.97

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Tallinn 10 / 100

Elva 83 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FC Tallinn Elva

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick ELV Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Elva let in goals in 81% of their last 32 matches.

Attacking prowess: FC Tallinn scored in 68% of their last 31 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: FC Tallinn remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Tallinn VS Elva

1 Goals Scored 1.75

2.5 Goals Conceded 1.5

88% Over 1.5 75%

75% Over 2.5 63%

63% Over 3.5 50%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tartu JK Welco	19	14	3	2	62:24	45
2	Viimsi JK	19	9	5	5	31:19	32
3	Flora Tallinn U21	18	9	4	5	45:35	31
4	Elva	20	9	3	8	37:33	30
5	Levadia U21	19	8	0	11	37:35	24
6	Maardu Linnameeskond	19	6	5	8	27:46	23
7	Tallinna Kalev	19	6	4	9	37:39	22
8	Nomme Utd U21	18	5	5	8	35:42	20
9	Kalju U21	18	5	4	9	30:44	19
10	FC Tallinn	19	4	5	10	25:49	17