Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FC Tallinn vs Elva

Estonia Estonia

Esiliiga Lasnamäe Sports Complex Stadium, Tallinn
Our Tip

Match Events

37' Event
Salamatov N.
Own Goal
45' Event
Jagodinskis R.
Assist: Poldsaar K.
63' Event
Mbuthia J.

AI Match Summary

Elva in this Esiliiga matchup, with the score ending 0-3 — backing the pre-match view that favored Elva.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

40%
FC Tallinn
20%
Draws
40%
Elva
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

40% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Elva lately — more wins on the board than FC Tallinn.
  • 40% — that's where the model lands on Elva taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Elva have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
FC Tallinn Clean Sheet 10%
Elva Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Tallinn Elva
Matches Played 27 29
Wins 8 15
Draws 6 4
Losses 13 10
Goals Scored 1.48 1.93
Goals Conceded 2.26 1.45
Expected Goals (xG) 1.31 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 11, 2026 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Elva
0:3
May 7, 2026 Esiliiga
Elva vs FC Tallinn
2:0
Mar 7, 2026 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Elva
1:1
Oct 19, 2025 Esiliiga
Elva vs FC Tallinn
1:0
Aug 16, 2025 Esiliiga
FC Tallinn vs Elva
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Tallinn Compare

Avg xG / game 1.01
Avg xA / game 0.66

Elva Compare

Top Goalscorer Jagodinskis R.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Mbuthia J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Tallinn 22 / 100
Elva 47 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Tallinn Elva

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Elva Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Tallinn scored in 63% of their last 27 games.

Elva has conceded goals in 79% of their last 28 outings.

These sides typically produce 2.20 goals when they meet.

Solid form: FC Tallinn remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Tallinn VS Elva
1.5 Goals Scored 2.75
1.13 Goals Conceded 1.13
63% Over 1.5 100%
38% Over 2.5 100%
25% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Tallinn

(Home)
15 Aug
Maardu Linnameeskond
1 : 0
FC Tallinn
08 Aug
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 1
FC Tallinn
01 Aug
FC Tallinn
1 : 0
Flora Tallinn U21
28 Jul
FC Tallinn
4 : 1
Tallinna FC Zapoos
18 Jul
Tartu JK Welco
0 : 2
FC Tallinn
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Elva

(Away)
15 Aug
Tallinna Kalev
1 : 0
Elva
12 Aug
Elva
:
Raasiku Joker
08 Aug
Elva
2 : 1
Tartu JK Welco
01 Aug
Levadia U21
2 : 2
Elva
22 Jul
Laanemaa Haapsalu
0 : 6
Elva
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Tartu JK Welco 23 15 3 5 66:31 48
2 Viimsi JK 23 12 5 6 42:22 41
3 Flora Tallinn U21 23 11 4 8 55:41 37
4 Elva 23 10 4 9 41:37 34
5 Tallinna Kalev 23 9 5 9 44:42 32
6 Maardu Linnameeskond 23 9 5 9 36:50 32
7 Levadia U21 23 10 1 12 43:43 31
8 FC Tallinn 23 6 6 11 29:51 24
9 Nomme Utd U21 22 6 5 11 39:51 23
10 Kalju U21 22 5 4 13 31:58 19
Promotion - Meistriliiga 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Meistriliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga (Relegation)
Relegation - Esiliiga B 2027 (Main)