Sport Picks
FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia
Japan
J1 League Ajinomoto Stadium, Tokyo 
Match Events
5'
5'
Ryan Marcelo
Assist: Sato K.
27'
27'
Duke M.
Assist: Nakayama Y.
38'
38'
Hashimoto K.
AI Match Summary
The J1 League game between FC Tokyo and Machida Zelvia finished 1-5, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Machida Zelvia.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
20%
61%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Machida Zelvia
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- FC Tokyo haven't matched Machida Zelvia's recent run of results.
- Model gives Machida Zelvia a 61% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 19%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.8%
FC Tokyo Clean Sheet 16%
Machida Zelvia Clean Sheet 68%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | FC Tokyo | Machida Zelvia |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 28 | 33 |
| Wins | 16 | 23 |
| Draws | 3 | 2 |
| Losses | 9 | 8 |
| Goals Scored | 1.57 | 1.58 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.29 | 1 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.94 | 1.50 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 8, 2026 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia
1:5
Apr 5, 2026 J1 League
FC Tokyo vs Machida Zelvia
0:1
Apr 1, 2026 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo
0:3
Nov 16, 2025 Emperors Cup
Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo
2:0
Nov 9, 2025 J1 League
Machida Zelvia vs FC Tokyo
0:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
FC Tokyo Compare
Top Goalscorer Ryan Marcelo
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.72
Avg xA / game 0.47
Machida Zelvia Compare
Top Goalscorer Duke M.
1 Goals Assists Leader Akimoto T.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.36
Avg xA / game 0.83
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
FC Tokyo 10 / 100
Machida Zelvia 95 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
FC Tokyo Machida Zelvia
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Machida Zelvia Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
FC Tokyo's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 28 recent games.
Machida Zelvia let in goals in 61% of their last 33 matches.
H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.
FC Tokyo has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
FC Tokyo VS Machida Zelvia
1 Goals Scored 1.5
1.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
63% Over 1.5 75%
63% Over 2.5 50%
25% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
FC Tokyo
(Home) 08 Aug
FC Tokyo
1 : 5 Machida Zelvia
01 Aug
FC Tokyo
0 : 1 Dortmund
21 Jul
FC Tokyo
2 : 1 Nagoya Grampus
06 Jun
FC Tokyo
1 : 3 Cerezo Osaka
30 May
Cerezo Osaka
2 : 2 FC Tokyo
Page 1 of 6
08 Aug
FC Tokyo
1 : 5 Machida Zelvia
01 Aug
FC Tokyo
0 : 1 Dortmund
21 Jul
FC Tokyo
2 : 1 Nagoya Grampus
06 Jun
FC Tokyo
1 : 3 Cerezo Osaka
10 May
FC Tokyo
2 : 1 Verdy
Page 1 of 3
Machida Zelvia
(Away) 08 Aug
FC Tokyo
1 : 5 Machida Zelvia
18 Jul
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1 Fujieda MYFC
06 Jun
Machida Zelvia
2 : 1 Nagoya Grampus
30 May
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 2 Machida Zelvia
22 May
Machida Zelvia
1 : 0 Urawa Reds
Page 1 of 7
08 Aug
FC Tokyo
1 : 5 Machida Zelvia
30 May
Nagoya Grampus
2 : 2 Machida Zelvia
17 May
Kawasaki Frontale
2 : 1 Machida Zelvia
10 May
Chiba
0 : 2 Machida Zelvia
03 May
Kashima Antlers
2 : 1 Machida Zelvia
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5:1 | 3 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3:0 | 3 |
| 3 | Kashima Antlers | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 4 | Gamba Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4:3 | 3 |
| 5 | Cerezo Osaka | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 6 | Kashiwa Reysol | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 7 | V-Varen Nagasaki | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2:1 | 3 |
| 8 | Shimizu S-Pulse | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 9 | Vissel Kobe | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1:0 | 3 |
| 10 | Verdy | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 11 | Kawasaki Frontale | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1:1 | 1 |
| 12 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 13 | Urawa Reds | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3:4 | 0 |
| 14 | Mito | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 15 | Kyoto | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 16 | Okayama | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:2 | 0 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 18 | Nagoya Grampus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:1 | 0 |
| 19 | Chiba | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0:3 | 0 |
| 20 | FC Tokyo | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1:5 | 0 |
Promotion - AFC Champions League 2027/2028 (League phase)
Relegation - J2 League 2027/2028 (Main)
