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FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren

Mongolia Mongolia

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

45' Event
Erdenechimeg U.
58' Event
Amaraa D.

AI Match Summary

FC Ulaanbaatar in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored FC Ulaanbaatar.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

28%
FC Ulaanbaatar
20%
Draws
52%
Deren
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Deren

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

20% / Low Confidence
  • FC Ulaanbaatar have won more games recently than Deren.
  • FC Ulaanbaatar are the model's pick here, at 42%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
FC Ulaanbaatar Clean Sheet 10%
Deren Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ulaanbaatar Deren
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 20 17
Draws 5 4
Losses 4 9
Goals Scored 3.45 3
Goals Conceded 0.9 1.1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.56 2.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 17, 2026 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:0
Jul 6, 2026 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren
2:3
Jun 27, 2026 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:2
May 23, 2026 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Deren
2:0
Oct 26, 2025 Premier League
Deren vs FC Ulaanbaatar
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ulaanbaatar Compare

Top Goalscorer Erdenechimeg U.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Amaraa D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.2
Avg xA / game 0.78

Deren Compare

Avg xG / game 1.87
Avg xA / game 1.14

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ulaanbaatar 40 / 100
Deren 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ulaanbaatar Deren

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Ulaanbaatar found the back of the net in 93% of recent matches (29 games).

Defensive concern: Deren conceded in 70% of 30 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.20 goals.

FC Ulaanbaatar has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FC Ulaanbaatar VS Deren
2.13 Goals Scored 2.63
1.5 Goals Conceded 1
88% Over 1.5 100%
75% Over 2.5 75%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Ulaanbaatar

(Home)
20 Sept
Amtat FC
0 : 9
FC Ulaanbaatar
17 Sept
Deren
0 : 0
FC Ulaanbaatar
11 Aug
FC Ulaanbaatar
1 : 2
Hang Yuen
06 Jul
FC Ulaanbaatar
2 : 3
Deren
03 Jul
Khangarid
3 : 4
FC Ulaanbaatar
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Deren

(Away)
20 Sept
Ulaangom City FC
0 : 5
Deren
17 Sept
Deren
0 : 0
FC Ulaanbaatar
12 Sept
Hunters
1 : 2
Deren
06 Jul
FC Ulaanbaatar
2 : 3
Deren
03 Jul
Central Stallions
0 : 3
Deren
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Ulaanbaatar 16 13 2 1 65:9 41
2 Central Stallions 16 12 3 1 54:14 39
3 Khangarid 16 10 3 3 59:19 33
4 Deren 16 9 3 4 57:16 30
5 Hunters 16 7 3 6 44:27 24
6 Khovd Western 16 5 3 8 29:36 18
7 Khovd 16 4 0 12 28:73 12
8 Khoromkhon 16 2 0 14 27:86 6
9 Ulaangom City FC 16 1 1 14 16:99 4
10 Falcons 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)