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FC Ulaanbaatar vs Falcons

Mongolia Mongolia

Premier League 2025/2026
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Thiago Tomais
Own Goal
50' Event
Bathishig M.

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Premier League 2025/2026 matchup, with the score ending 1-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

37%
FC Ulaanbaatar
15%
Draws
48%
Falcons
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Falcons

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

37% / Low Confidence
  • FC Ulaanbaatar have won more games recently than Falcons.
  • Model gives FC Ulaanbaatar a 37% chance of winning this.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.6%
FC Ulaanbaatar Clean Sheet 20%
Falcons Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FC Ulaanbaatar Falcons
Matches Played 30 26
Wins 20 19
Draws 5 5
Losses 5 2
Goals Scored 3.43 3.5
Goals Conceded 1 0.85
Expected Goals (xG) 2.48 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 28, 2025 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Falcons
1:1
Jun 15, 2025 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Falcons
3:4
Mar 15, 2025 Premier League
Falcons vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:0
Aug 16, 2024 Premier League
Falcons vs FC Ulaanbaatar
0:1
May 12, 2024 Premier League
FC Ulaanbaatar vs Falcons
1:3

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FC Ulaanbaatar Compare

Avg xG / game 1.91
Avg xA / game 1.24

Falcons Compare

Top Goalscorer Bathishig M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FC Ulaanbaatar 85 / 100
Falcons 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FC Ulaanbaatar Falcons

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FC Ulaanbaatar Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FC Ulaanbaatar's goal record stands at 93% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

Historical meetings average 2.80 goals per match.

Solid form: FC Ulaanbaatar remains unbeaten in 3 of 5 recent matches.

Falcons let in goals in 58% of their last 26 matches.

Scoring Trends

FC Ulaanbaatar VS Falcons
3.75 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
88% Over 1.5 0%
75% Over 2.5 0%
63% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

FC Ulaanbaatar

(Home)
20 Sept
Amtat FC
0 : 9
FC Ulaanbaatar
17 Sept
Deren
0 : 0
FC Ulaanbaatar
11 Aug
FC Ulaanbaatar
1 : 2
Hang Yuen
06 Jul
FC Ulaanbaatar
2 : 3
Deren
03 Jul
Khangarid
3 : 4
FC Ulaanbaatar
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Falcons

(Away)
01 Nov
Falcons
3 : 1
Ezra
29 Oct
Falcons
0 : 2
Manila Digger
26 Oct
Svay Rieng
3 : 0
Falcons
12 Oct
Khovd
0 : 2
Falcons
07 Oct
Khoromkhon
0 : 7
Falcons
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FC Ulaanbaatar 16 13 2 1 65:9 41
2 Central Stallions 16 12 3 1 54:14 39
3 Khangarid 16 10 3 3 59:19 33
4 Deren 16 9 3 4 57:16 30
5 Hunters 16 7 3 6 44:27 24
6 Khovd Western 16 5 3 8 29:36 18
7 Khovd 16 4 0 12 28:73 12
8 Khoromkhon 16 2 0 14 27:86 6
9 Ulaangom City FC 16 1 1 14 16:99 4
10 Falcons 0 0 0 0 0:0 0
Promotion - AFC Challenge League (Qualification)
Relegation - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)