Sport Picks
Fencibles United AFC vs Auckland City
New Zealand
Chatham Cup 
Match Events
29'
29'
Wessels L.
45'
45'
Rangihuna-Stanton R.
67'
67'
Lobo N.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-2. This leg finished 3-2.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
38%
15%
47%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Auckland City
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
15%
/ Low Confidence
- Form's been kind to Auckland City lately — more wins on the board than Fencibles United AFC.
- Win probability leans Fencibles United AFC's way, sitting at 42%.
- Auckland City arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Fencibles United AFC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%
Fencibles United AFC Clean Sheet 17%
Auckland City Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fencibles United AFC | Auckland City |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 7 | 38 |
| Wins | 5 | 26 |
| Draws | 0 | 5 |
| Losses | 2 | 7 |
| Goals Scored | 1.86 | 1.97 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.94 | 1.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Jul 25, 2026 Chatham Cup
Fencibles United AFC vs Auckland City
3:2
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fencibles United AFC Compare
Top Goalscorer Wessels L.
1 Goals Assists Leader Rangihuna-Stanton R.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97
Auckland City Compare
Top Goalscorer Lobo N.
1 Goals Assists Leader Manickum D.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fencibles United AFC 41 / 100
Auckland City 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fencibles United AFC Auckland City
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Historical meetings average 5.00 goals per match.
Fencibles United AFC scored in 71% of their last 7 games.
Auckland City let in goals in 68% of their last 38 matches.
Solid form: Fencibles United AFC remains unbeaten in 4 of 5 recent matches.
Scoring Trends
Fencibles United AFC VS Auckland City
2.75 Goals Scored 2
0.75 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 88%
100% Over 2.5 63%
25% Over 3.5 38%
Recent Form & Match History
Fencibles United AFC
(Home) 05 Sept
Cashmere Technical
1 : 2 Fencibles United AFC
15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
Page 1 of 2
15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
2 : 1 Western Springs
Page 1 of 2
Auckland City
(Away) 22 Aug
Auckland City
2 : 0 Central Coast
19 Aug
Auckland City
3 : 1 Rewa
16 Aug
Auckland City
4 : 3 Venus
13 Aug
Tiga Sport
0 : 1 Auckland City
10 Aug
Central Coast
1 : 2 Auckland City
Page 1 of 8
13 Aug
Tiga Sport
0 : 1 Auckland City
10 Aug
Central Coast
1 : 2 Auckland City
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
13 Dec
Wellington Olympic
2 : 3 Auckland City
30 Nov
Western Springs
1 : 3 Auckland City
Page 1 of 4
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
South Auckland Rangers 0
Auckland City 3
Takapuna Afc 0
Nelson Suburbs FC 5
Northern AFC 0
Auckland United 3
Cambridge 1
Dunedin City Royals 0
Cashmere Technical 9
Island Bay 1
Miramar 3
Melville 0
Hibiscus Coast 1
Petone 0
Napier City 4
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Auckland City 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 2
Auckland United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Miramar 1
Hibiscus Coast 2
Napier City 5
Semi-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Cashmere Technical 2
Napier City 1
Final
Fencibles United AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 1
