Sport Picks
Fencibles United AFC vs Nelson Suburbs FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
New Zealand
Chatham Cup 
Match Events
1'
1'
Nicol K.
5'
5'
Laing-McConnell D.
90'
90'
Laing-McConnell D.
AI Match Summary
First leg ended 3-0. This leg finished 3-0.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
49%
15%
36%
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Fencibles United AFC
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
49%
/ Medium Confidence
- Form's been kind to Nelson Suburbs FC lately — more wins on the board than Fencibles United AFC.
- Fencibles United AFC are the model's pick here, at 70%.
- Nelson Suburbs FC arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
- Historical meetings favor Fencibles United AFC, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 19.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 9%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 66.2%
Fencibles United AFC Clean Sheet 19%
Nelson Suburbs FC Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fencibles United AFC | Nelson Suburbs FC |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 7 | 13 |
| Wins | 5 | 7 |
| Draws | 0 | 0 |
| Losses | 2 | 6 |
| Goals Scored | 1.86 | 1.54 |
| Goals Conceded | 1.14 | 1.46 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.62 | 1.26 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 15, 2026 Chatham Cup
Fencibles United AFC vs Nelson Suburbs FC
3:0
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fencibles United AFC Compare
Top Goalscorer Laing-McConnell D.
2 Goals Assists Leader Nicol K.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81
Nelson Suburbs FC Compare
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.7
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fencibles United AFC 67 / 100
Nelson Suburbs FC 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fencibles United AFC Nelson Suburbs FC
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Fencibles United AFC Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Attacking prowess: Fencibles United AFC scored in 71% of their last 7 outings.
Defensive concern: Nelson Suburbs FC conceded in 69% of 13 recent games.
Historical meetings average 3.00 goals per match.
Fencibles United AFC went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.
Scoring Trends
Fencibles United AFC VS Nelson Suburbs FC
1.86 Goals Scored 1.38
1.14 Goals Conceded 1.38
100% Over 1.5 63%
71% Over 2.5 50%
14% Over 3.5 25%
Recent Form & Match History
Fencibles United AFC
(Home) 05 Sept
Cashmere Technical
1 : 2 Fencibles United AFC
15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
Page 1 of 2
15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
25 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 2 Auckland City
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 South Auckland Rangers
26 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
0 : 2 Eastern Suburbs
04 Jul
Fencibles United AFC
2 : 1 Western Springs
Page 1 of 2
Nelson Suburbs FC
(Away) 15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Auckland United
04 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
5 : 0 Northern AFC
16 Aug
Auckland United
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
26 Jul
Nelson Suburbs FC
2 : 1 Birkenhead
Page 1 of 3
15 Aug
Fencibles United AFC
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
16 Aug
Auckland United
3 : 0 Nelson Suburbs FC
05 Jul
Dunedin City Royals
0 : 1 Nelson Suburbs FC
09 Jul
Dunedin City Royals
3 : 1 Nelson Suburbs FC
06 Jul
Christchurch
2 : 1 Nelson Suburbs FC
Page 1 of 2
Tournament Bracket & Draw
1/8-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
South Auckland Rangers 0
Auckland City 3
Takapuna Afc 0
Nelson Suburbs FC 5
Northern AFC 0
Auckland United 3
Cambridge 1
Dunedin City Royals 0
Cashmere Technical 9
Island Bay 1
Miramar 3
Melville 0
Hibiscus Coast 1
Petone 0
Napier City 4
Quarter-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Auckland City 2
Nelson Suburbs FC 2
Auckland United 1
Cashmere Technical 2
Miramar 1
Hibiscus Coast 2
Napier City 5
Semi-finals
Fencibles United AFC 3
Nelson Suburbs FC 0
Cashmere Technical 2
Napier City 1
Final
Fencibles United AFC 2
Cashmere Technical 1
