Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Fenerbahce vs Erzurumspor FK

Turkey Turkey

Turkish Cup Chobani Stadium Fenerbahce Sukru Saracoglu
Our Tip

Match Events

40' Event
Fettahoglu M.
46'
Sub
Fettahoglu M. In: Fernando Andrade
Out: Fettahoglu M.
46'
Sub
Aydin O. In: Muldur M.
Out: Aydin O.

AI Match Summary

Fenerbahce in this Turkish Cup matchup, with the score ending 3-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fenerbahce.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Fenerbahce
6%
Draws
4%
Erzurumspor FK
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fenerbahce

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Fenerbahce average 2 goals a game right now, well clear of Erzurumspor FK's 1.25.
  • Model gives Fenerbahce a 90% chance of winning this.
  • Knockout football tends to sharpen focus — no second leg to fall back on.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • Fenerbahce have won 5 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30.400000000000002%
Fenerbahce Clean Sheet 68%
Erzurumspor FK Clean Sheet 11%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenerbahce Erzurumspor FK
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 21 21
Draws 6 4
Losses 6 4
Goals Scored 2 1.25
Goals Conceded 1.25 0.5
Expected Goals (xG) 2.00 1.25
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.25 0.50

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 5, 2026 Turkish Cup
Fenerbahce vs Erzurumspor FK
3:1
Feb 5, 2025 Turkish Cup
Fenerbahce vs Erzurumspor FK
5:0
May 3, 2021 Super Lig
Fenerbahce vs Erzurumspor FK
3:1
Jan 11, 2021 Super Lig
Erzurumspor FK vs Fenerbahce
0:3
May 20, 2019 Super Lig
Erzurumspor FK vs Fenerbahce
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fenerbahce Compare

Top Goalscorer Asensio M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Talisca A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.54
Avg xA / game 1

Erzurumspor FK Compare

Top Goalscorer Fettahoglu M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.14
Avg xA / game 0.69

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenerbahce 95 / 100
Erzurumspor FK 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenerbahce Erzurumspor FK

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Fenerbahce scored in 85% of their last 33 outings.

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

Recent resilience: Fenerbahce stayed unbeaten in 5 of the last 5 games.

Erzurumspor FK has conceded goals in 48% of their last 29 outings.

Scoring Trends

Fenerbahce VS Erzurumspor FK
2 Goals Scored 1.25
1.25 Goals Conceded 0.5
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 13%
50% Over 3.5 0%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Galatasaray44008:312
2Trabzonspor430113:49
3Alanyaspor42118:47
4Basaksehir42028:76
5F. Karagumruk41215:65
6Boluspor40221:62
7Istanbulspor AS40222:92
8Fethiyespor40131:71
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Samsunspor440012:312
2Konyaspor44009:112
3Genclerbirligi43109:510
4Igdir FK41219:45
5Eyupspor41125:64
6Bodrumspor40133:71
7Aliaga40135:161
8Antalyaspor40040:100
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Besiktas431010:310
2Fenerbahce43019:39
3Erzurumspor FK42028:86
4Gaziantep42028:106
5Kocaelispor41124:44
6Rizespor41127:94
7Beyoglu Yeni Carsi41123:54
8Keciorengucu41036:133