Sport Picks
Fenix Mariupol vs MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
Ukraine
Persha Liga 2025/2026 Kolos Stadium, Kovalivka 
Match Events
15'
15'
Kyslenko S.
24'
24'
Sub
Misanov M. In: Klymenko V.
Out: Misanov M.
34'
34'
Sitalo A.
AI Match Summary
The Persha Liga 2025/2026 game between Fenix Mariupol and MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya finished 2-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fenix Mariupol.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
90%
6%
4%
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fenix Mariupol
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
95%
/ Very High Confidence
- Fenix Mariupol carry the better recent record into this one.
- Model gives Fenix Mariupol a 90% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 69%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.2%
Fenix Mariupol Clean Sheet 68%
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya Clean Sheet 10%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Fenix Mariupol | MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 30 | 30 |
| Wins | 10 | 5 |
| Draws | 10 | 6 |
| Losses | 10 | 19 |
| Goals Scored | 1.5 | 0.38 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.5 | 2.5 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 1.50 | 0.38 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 0.50 | 2.50 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Apr 8, 2026 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
2:1
Sep 21, 2025 Persha Liga
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Fenix Mariupol
1:1
Sep 18, 2025 Ukrainian Cup
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Fenix Mariupol
1:2
Oct 25, 2024 Persha Liga
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya vs Fenix Mariupol
1:0
Sep 6, 2024 Persha Liga
Fenix Mariupol vs MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
1:1
Key Player Impact Analysis
Key performers and expected goal involvement factors
Fenix Mariupol Compare
Top Goalscorer Kyslenko S.
2 Goals Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya Compare
Top Goalscorer Sitalo A.
1 Goals Avg xG / game 0.35
Avg xA / game 0.21
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Fenix Mariupol 95 / 100
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Fenix Mariupol MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick FEN Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Fenix Mariupol's goal record stands at 67% scoring rate across 30 recent games.
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya's defensive record shows goals conceded in 77% of 30 matches.
H2H data points to 2.20 goals as a typical output.
Fenix Mariupol has registered 4 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Fenix Mariupol VS MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
1.5 Goals Scored 0.38
0.5 Goals Conceded 2.5
75% Over 1.5 63%
38% Over 2.5 63%
13% Over 3.5 50%
Recent Form & Match History
Fenix Mariupol
(Home) 24 Jul
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 1 Victoria
02 Jul
Karpaty Lviv
1 : 1 Fenix Mariupol
27 Jun
Veres Rivne
1 : 1 Fenix Mariupol
01 Jun
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 0 Victoria
23 May
FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi
0 : 0 Fenix Mariupol
Page 1 of 6
24 Jul
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 1 Victoria
01 Jun
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 0 Victoria
17 May
Fenix Mariupol
0 : 0 Probiy Horodenka
01 May
Fenix Mariupol
4 : 0 Ahrobiznes Volochysk
19 Apr
Fenix Mariupol
1 : 1 Inhulets
Page 1 of 3
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
(Away) 02 Jun
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
0 : 4 Bukovyna
29 May
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
0 : 0 FC Chernihiv
22 May
Livyi Bereg
4 : 0 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
10 May
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
0 : 1 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
04 May
MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
0 : 3 Victoria
Page 1 of 6
22 May
Livyi Bereg
4 : 0 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
10 May
Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998)
0 : 1 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
25 Apr
Probiy Horodenka
3 : 1 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
12 Apr
Inhulets
0 : 0 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
08 Apr
Fenix Mariupol
2 : 1 MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bukovyna | 30 | 26 | 3 | 1 | 74:21 | 81 |
| 2 | Ch. Odesa | 30 | 19 | 8 | 3 | 44:20 | 65 |
| 3 | Livyi Bereg | 30 | 19 | 6 | 5 | 50:21 | 63 |
| 4 | Ahrobiznes Volochysk | 30 | 16 | 5 | 9 | 36:28 | 53 |
| 5 | Inhulets | 30 | 12 | 10 | 8 | 41:32 | 46 |
| 6 | Prykarpattya Ivano-Frankivsk (1998) | 30 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 33:33 | 37 |
| 7 | Metalist Kharkiv | 30 | 10 | 7 | 13 | 31:35 | 37 |
| 8 | Probiy Horodenka | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 29:37 | 36 |
| 9 | Fenix Mariupol | 30 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 31:32 | 36 |
| 10 | Victoria | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 37:38 | 36 |
| 11 | UCSA | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | 30:40 | 36 |
| 12 | Nyva Ternopil | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | 24:34 | 34 |
| 13 | FC Chernihiv | 30 | 8 | 7 | 15 | 30:36 | 31 |
| 14 | Vorskla Poltava | 30 | 7 | 9 | 14 | 23:36 | 30 |
| 15 | FC Podillya Khmelnytskyi | 30 | 4 | 9 | 17 | 20:45 | 21 |
| 16 | MFC Metalurh Zaporizhya | 30 | 4 | 7 | 19 | 16:61 | 19 |
| 17 | Minaj | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0:0 | 0 |
Promotion - Premier League (Main)
Promotion - Premier League 2025/2026 (Relegation)
Relegation - Druha Liga 2025/2026 (Promotion)
Relegation - Druha Liga (Main)