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Fenix vs Cerrito

Uruguay Uruguay

Segunda Division Parque Capurro
Our Tip

Match Events

17'
Ruiz S.
20' Event
Luciani V.
27' Event
Barboza A.

AI Match Summary

Fenix in this Segunda Division matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Fenix.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

42%
Fenix
20%
Draws
38%
Cerrito
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Fenix

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

67% / Medium Confidence
  • Fenix have won more games recently than Cerrito.
  • Model gives Fenix a 42% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Segunda Division form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • These two have met 5 times recently and Fenix have taken 4 of them.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
Fenix Clean Sheet 17%
Cerrito Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fenix Cerrito
Matches Played 28 29
Wins 11 10
Draws 8 11
Losses 9 8
Goals Scored 1.63 1.38
Goals Conceded 1.38 1.13
Expected Goals (xG) 1.63 1.38
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.38 1.13

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Apr 12, 2026 Segunda Division
Fenix vs Cerrito
4:1
Sep 22, 2025 Segunda Division
Cerrito vs Fenix
2:2
Jun 29, 2025 Segunda Division
Fenix vs Cerrito
3:2
Sep 15, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Cerrito vs Fenix
0:2
Apr 10, 2022 Liga AUF Uruguaya
Fenix vs Cerrito
2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fenix Compare

Top Goalscorer Luciani V.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Barboza A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.81

Cerrito Compare

Top Goalscorer Pereira S.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.25
Avg xA / game 0.77

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fenix 41 / 100
Cerrito 36 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fenix Cerrito

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

These sides typically produce 3.60 goals when they meet.

Fenix scored in 79% of their last 28 games.

Cerrito let in goals in 62% of their last 29 matches.

Recent resilience: Fenix stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Fenix VS Cerrito
1.63 Goals Scored 1.38
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.13
100% Over 1.5 50%
50% Over 2.5 25%
38% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Fenix632113:711
2Huracan FC62409:610
3Uruguay Montevideo FC62317:59
4Cerrito62318:89
5La Luz61415:67
6Atenas61145:114
7Tacuarembo60335:93
PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Club Oriental De Futbol64118:513
2Plaza Colonia63309:212
3Colon62318:59
4Rentistas62316:59
5Miramar61233:75
6Paysandu FC61144:74
7River Plate Montevideo61146:134