Sport Picks

Stadium Background

Ferroviaria vs Monte Azul

Brazil Brazil

Paulista A2
Our Tip

Match Events

41' Event
Cantarelli M.

AI Match Summary

Ferroviaria in this Paulista A2 matchup, with the score ending 1-0 — backing the pre-match view that favored Ferroviaria.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

73%
Ferroviaria
20%
Draws
7%
Monte Azul
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferroviaria

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

73% / High Confidence
  • Ferroviaria have won more games recently than Monte Azul.
  • Model gives Ferroviaria a 73% chance of winning this.
  • Regular Paulista A2 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 0%
Over 4.5 Goals 0%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.4%
Ferroviaria Clean Sheet 20%
Monte Azul Clean Sheet 14%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviaria Monte Azul
Matches Played 39 33
Wins 18 8
Draws 12 12
Losses 9 13
Goals Scored 1.28 1.09
Goals Conceded 0.87 1.3
Expected Goals (xG) 1.10 0.81
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Feb 22, 2026 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Monte Azul
1:0
Jan 17, 2024 Paulista A2
Monte Azul vs Ferroviaria
1:1
Mar 28, 2015 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Monte Azul
7:1
Feb 2, 2014 Paulista A2
Monte Azul vs Ferroviaria
2:1
Feb 24, 2013 Paulista A2
Ferroviaria vs Monte Azul
1:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviaria Compare

Top Goalscorer Cantarelli M.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.85
Avg xA / game 0.55

Monte Azul Compare

Avg xG / game 0.74
Avg xA / game 0.45

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviaria 85 / 100
Monte Azul 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviaria Monte Azul

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviaria Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Historical meetings average 3.40 goals per match.

Ferroviaria scored in 77% of their last 39 games.

Monte Azul let in goals in 76% of their last 33 matches.

Recent resilience: Ferroviaria stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviaria VS -
1 Goals Scored 0
0.63 Goals Conceded 0
50% Over 1.5 0%
25% Over 2.5 0%
0% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviaria

(Home)
20 Sept
Ferroviaria
3 : 2
Brusque
13 Sept
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Paysandu PA
05 Sept
Internacional de Limeira
3 : 3
Ferroviaria
29 Aug
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Confianca
23 Aug
Ypiranga FC
1 : 0
Ferroviaria
Page 1 of 8

Monte Azul

(Away)
07 Mar
Ituano
3 : 3
Monte Azul
04 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 2
Sertaozinho
01 Mar
Monte Azul
0 : 1
Agua Santa
25 Feb
Monte Azul
1 : 3
Juventus-SP
22 Feb
Ferroviaria
1 : 0
Monte Azul
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Agua Santa 15 10 1 4 24:14 31
2 Ferroviaria 15 8 4 3 22:12 28
3 Ituano 15 8 4 3 22:14 28
4 Sao Jose EC 15 8 3 4 21:13 27
5 Sertaozinho 15 7 4 4 19:19 25
6 Votuporanguense 15 7 3 5 16:17 24
7 Juventus-SP 15 6 5 4 22:20 23
8 Piracicaba 15 6 4 5 16:15 22
9 Osasco Sporting 15 5 7 3 22:18 22
10 Santo Andre 15 5 3 7 16:22 18
11 Taubate 15 3 8 4 22:23 17
12 Internacional de Limeira 15 4 4 7 15:18 16
13 Linense 15 2 7 6 12:18 13
14 Monte Azul 15 2 6 7 17:22 12
15 Gremio Prudente 15 1 9 5 12:16 12
16 Sao Bento 15 1 2 12 8:25 5
Promotion - Paulista A2 (Second stage)
Relegation - Paulista A3 (Main)