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Ferroviaria W vs Penarol W

South America South America

Copa Libertadores Women 2020
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Ferroviaria W play Penarol W in the Copa Libertadores Women 2020. Ferroviaria W are favorites here. Recently, Ferroviaria W averaged 2.08 goals scored and 0.92 conceded. Penarol W averaged 0.67 goals scored and 1.73 conceded. In past meetings, Ferroviaria W won 0, Penarol W won 0, and they drew 2. Their last match on Oct 7, 2024 ended 2:2. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.63 for Ferroviaria W and 0.69 for Penarol W. This points to a Ferroviaria W double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

56%
Ferroviaria W
29%
Draws
15%
Penarol W
Draw rate projection: 29% Favored: Ferroviaria W

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

89% / Very High Confidence
  • Ferroviaria W picked up more points recently compared to Penarol W.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.63 vs 0.69 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the home side.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 83%
Over 2.5 Goals 54%
Over 3.5 Goals 32%
Over 4.5 Goals 16%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 48%
Ferroviaria W Clean Sheet 28%
Penarol W Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 75%
Second Half Goal 79%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviaria W Penarol W
Matches Played 37 15
Wins 21 1
Draws 10 5
Losses 6 9
Goals Scored 2.08 0.67
Goals Conceded 0.92 1.73
Expected Goals (xG) 1.25 0.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 0.88 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 7, 2024 Copa Libertadores Women
Ferroviaria W vs Penarol W
2:2
Mar 9, 2021 Copa Libertadores Women
Ferroviaria W vs Penarol W
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Ferroviaria W Compare

Top Goalscorer Monalisa
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.63

Penarol W Compare

Top Goalscorer Aquino B.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.45
Avg xA / game 0.28

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviaria W 56 / 100
Penarol W 16 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviaria W Penarol W

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Ferroviaria W Win (1)
Secondary Pick Ferroviaria W & Over 2.5
First Half Result Home Win (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +16.5%
2.08
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +12.3%
2.08
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Ferroviaria W attacking → ← attacking Penarol W

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ferroviaria W scored in 84% of their last 37 games.

Penarol W let in goals in 80% of their last 15 matches.

Games between these two average 3.00 goals.

Ferroviaria W went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Penarol W lost 4 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

73 Points in last 5 8
1.25 Goals expected (xG) 0.50
0.88 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Corinthians W330027:09
2America de Cali W320110:46
3Universitario de Deportes W30121:141
4EL Nacional W30122:221
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Boca Juniors W321012:27
2S. Morning W312010:15
3Avai Kindermann W31118:14
4Deportivo Tropico W30031:270
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1River Plate W32104:07
2Indep. Santa Fe W32015:16
3Sol de America W31112:24
4Atletico SC W30031:90
PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1U. De Chile W32017:46
2Ferroviaria W31115:64
3Libertad Limpeno W31114:54
4Penarol W30211:22