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Stadium Background

Ferroviario Maputo vs Costa do Sol

Mozambique Mozambique

Mocambola
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The Mocambola game between Ferroviario Maputo and Costa do Sol finished 0-1, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Costa do Sol.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

32%
Ferroviario Maputo
20%
Draws
48%
Costa do Sol
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Costa do Sol

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

48% / Medium Confidence
  • Ferroviario Maputo have managed 0.91 goals a game lately — Costa do Sol are scoring more at 1.07.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Mocambola form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.
  • Costa do Sol have won 4 of the last 5 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 24.4%
Ferroviario Maputo Clean Sheet 21%
Costa do Sol Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Ferroviario Maputo Costa do Sol
Matches Played 32 28
Wins 12 12
Draws 8 9
Losses 12 7
Goals Scored 0.91 1.07
Goals Conceded 0.78 0.71
Expected Goals (xG) 0.75 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 22, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Costa do Sol
0:1
May 9, 2026 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo
1:0
Nov 24, 2025 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo
2:1
Aug 16, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Costa do Sol
0:1
Aug 18, 2024 Mocambola
Costa do Sol vs Ferroviario Maputo
1:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Ferroviario Maputo 37 / 100
Costa do Sol 32 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Ferroviario Maputo Costa do Sol

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Costa do Sol Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 1.60 goals.

Ferroviario Maputo went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Attacking prowess: Ferroviario Maputo scored in 56% of their last 32 outings.

Defensive concern: Costa do Sol conceded in 50% of 28 recent games.

Scoring Trends

Ferroviario Maputo VS Costa do Sol
1 Goals Scored 1.5
0.75 Goals Conceded 0.5
50% Over 1.5 63%
25% Over 2.5 50%
13% Over 3.5 0%

Recent Form & Match History

Ferroviario Maputo

(Home)
15 Sept
Sofala
0 : 2
Ferroviario Maputo
02 Sept
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 0
UD Songo
30 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
1 : 0
Chingale de Tete
25 Aug
Maxaquene
2 : 2
Ferroviario Maputo
22 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 1
Costa do Sol
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Costa do Sol

(Away)
16 Sept
Chingale de Tete
0 : 1
Costa do Sol
02 Sept
Costa do Sol
1 : 0
Sofala
30 Aug
Costa do Sol
1 : 2
Ferroviario Beira
26 Aug
Costa do Sol
3 : 0
Associacao Black Bulls
22 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 1
Costa do Sol
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Associacao Black Bulls 18 12 5 1 27:9 41
2 Costa do Sol 18 10 4 4 24:11 34
3 Ferroviario Beira 18 9 7 2 23:12 34
4 Ferroviario Lichinga 17 8 4 5 16:13 28
5 Ferroviario Nampula 17 8 4 5 19:21 28
6 UD Songo 17 5 10 2 16:13 25
7 Ferroviario Maputo 18 6 5 7 13:11 23
8 ENH Vilankulo 17 4 8 5 19:16 20
9 Ferroviario Nacala 17 5 5 7 8:12 20
10 Baia de Pemba 17 4 7 6 9:12 19
11 Sofala 18 4 6 8 8:18 18
12 AD Pemba 17 5 2 10 9:19 17
13 Maxaquene 17 1 7 9 8:19 10
14 Chingale de Tete 18 1 6 11 4:17 9
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)