Sport Picks
Ferroviario Nacala vs Ferroviario Maputo - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions
Mozambique
Mocambola 
AI Match Summary
The Mocambola game between Ferroviario Nacala and Ferroviario Maputo finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Ferroviario Nacala.
Win Probability Meter
Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles
19%
20%
61%
Draw rate projection: 20% Favored: Ferroviario Maputo
Model Confidence
Aggregate indicator score
61%
/ High Confidence
- Look at the last few games and Ferroviario Maputo come out ahead of Ferroviario Nacala on wins alone.
- Model gives Ferroviario Maputo a 61% chance of winning this.
- This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
- High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
Goal Probability Engine
Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories
Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 57%
Ferroviario Nacala Clean Sheet 20%
Ferroviario Maputo Clean Sheet 20%
Recent Team Form Analysis
Averages per match over historical game filters
| Metric | Ferroviario Nacala | Ferroviario Maputo |
|---|---|---|
| Matches Played | 26 | 28 |
| Wins | 10 | 11 |
| Draws | 6 | 7 |
| Losses | 10 | 10 |
| Goals Scored | 0.58 | 0.86 |
| Goals Conceded | 0.65 | 0.68 |
| Expected Goals (xG) | 0.50 | 0.88 |
| Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) | 1.10 | 1.40 |
H2H
Historical prediction success rates across key markets
Aug 14, 2026 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Ferroviario Maputo
1:0
Dec 14, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Ferroviario Maputo
0:0
Aug 25, 2025 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Ferroviario Nacala
0:0
Oct 7, 2023 Mocambola
Ferroviario Maputo vs Ferroviario Nacala
4:0
Jun 4, 2023 Mocambola
Ferroviario Nacala vs Ferroviario Maputo
2:2
SokaPicks Momentum Index
Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)
Ferroviario Nacala 20 / 100
Ferroviario Maputo 58 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).
Attack & Defence Capability Index
Ferroviario Nacala Ferroviario Maputo
AI Prediction Engine Forecast
Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets
Primary Pick Ferroviario Maputo Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5
SokaPicks Smart Insights
Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system
Games between these two average 1.80 goals.
Ferroviario Nacala found the back of the net in 42% of recent matches (26 games).
Ferroviario Maputo's defensive record shows goals conceded in 46% of 28 matches.
Ferroviario Nacala has registered 2 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.
Scoring Trends
Ferroviario Nacala VS Ferroviario Maputo
0.25 Goals Scored 0.75
1 Goals Conceded 0.75
13% Over 1.5 38%
13% Over 2.5 25%
0% Over 3.5 13%
Recent Form & Match History
Ferroviario Nacala
(Home) 16 Sept
Ferroviario Lichinga
0 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
02 Sept
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 ENH Vilankulo
25 Aug
Baia de Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
21 Aug
AD Pemba
1 : 0 Ferroviario Nacala
17 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
0 : 1 Associacao Black Bulls
Page 1 of 6
02 Sept
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 ENH Vilankulo
17 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
0 : 1 Associacao Black Bulls
14 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 Ferroviario Maputo
01 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
0 : 1 Chingale de Tete
27 Jul
Ferroviario Nacala
0 : 0 UD Songo
Page 1 of 3
Ferroviario Maputo
(Away) 08 Oct
Ferroviario Maputo
1 : 0 ENH Vilankulo
19 Sept
Ferroviario Beira
0 : 1 Ferroviario Maputo
15 Sept
Sofala
0 : 2 Ferroviario Maputo
02 Sept
Ferroviario Maputo
0 : 0 UD Songo
30 Aug
Ferroviario Maputo
1 : 0 Chingale de Tete
Page 1 of 6
19 Sept
Ferroviario Beira
0 : 1 Ferroviario Maputo
15 Sept
Sofala
0 : 2 Ferroviario Maputo
25 Aug
Maxaquene
2 : 2 Ferroviario Maputo
18 Aug
Ferroviario Nampula
2 : 1 Ferroviario Maputo
14 Aug
Ferroviario Nacala
1 : 0 Ferroviario Maputo
Page 1 of 3
League Standings
| Pos | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Associacao Black Bulls | 19 | 13 | 5 | 1 | 28:9 | 44 |
| 2 | Costa do Sol | 20 | 12 | 4 | 4 | 28:12 | 40 |
| 3 | Ferroviario Beira | 19 | 9 | 7 | 3 | 23:13 | 34 |
| 4 | Ferroviario Maputo | 20 | 8 | 5 | 7 | 15:11 | 29 |
| 5 | UD Songo | 19 | 6 | 10 | 3 | 21:15 | 28 |
| 6 | Ferroviario Lichinga | 18 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 16:15 | 28 |
| 7 | Ferroviario Nampula | 17 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 19:21 | 28 |
| 8 | ENH Vilankulo | 18 | 4 | 8 | 6 | 19:17 | 20 |
| 9 | Ferroviario Nacala | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 8:12 | 20 |
| 10 | AD Pemba | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 10:19 | 20 |
| 11 | Baia de Pemba | 17 | 4 | 7 | 6 | 9:12 | 19 |
| 12 | Sofala | 19 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 8:19 | 18 |
| 13 | Chingale de Tete | 20 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 5:18 | 12 |
| 14 | Maxaquene | 19 | 1 | 7 | 11 | 8:24 | 10 |
Promotion - CAF Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
