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Fgura vs Mtarfa

Malta Malta

Challenge League Centenary Stadium, Ta' Qali
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Match Events

7' Event
Akande T.
27' Event
Caruana D.
40' Event
Akande T.

AI Match Summary

The Challenge League game between Fgura and Mtarfa finished 8-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward Fgura.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

90%
Fgura
6%
Draws
4%
Mtarfa
Draw rate projection: 6% Favored: Fgura

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

95% / Very High Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Fgura come out ahead of Mtarfa on wins alone.
  • Fgura are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 32.400000000000006%
Fgura Clean Sheet 68%
Mtarfa Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Fgura Mtarfa
Matches Played 30 30
Wins 15 5
Draws 2 2
Losses 13 23
Goals Scored 1.5 0
Goals Conceded 2.63 4.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.63 4.88

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Dec 14, 2025 Challenge League
Fgura vs Mtarfa
8:0
Apr 12, 2025 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Fgura
3:2
Sep 22, 2024 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Fgura
1:2
Feb 12, 2023 Challenge League
Fgura vs Mtarfa
1:1
Nov 1, 2022 Challenge League
Mtarfa vs Fgura
0:2

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Fgura Compare

Top Goalscorer Caruana D.
3 Goals
Assists Leader Akande T.
2 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.15
Avg xA / game 0.75

Mtarfa Compare

Avg xG / game 0
Avg xA / game 0

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Fgura 95 / 100
Mtarfa 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Fgura Mtarfa

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FGU Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 3:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Fgura scored in 87% of their last 30 games.

Mtarfa let in goals in 97% of their last 30 matches.

H2H data points to 4.00 goals as a typical output.

Away concern: Mtarfa has suffered 5 losses in 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Fgura VS Mtarfa
1.5 Goals Scored 0
2.63 Goals Conceded 4.88
100% Over 1.5 88%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

Fgura

(Home)
19 Apr
Swieqi
1 : 1
Fgura
11 Apr
Melita
0 : 1
Fgura
04 Apr
Fgura
0 : 4
Pieta
15 Mar
Sirens
3 : 2
Fgura
10 Mar
Fgura
1 : 2
Balzan FC
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Mtarfa

(Away)
19 Apr
Mtarfa
1 : 5
Santa Lucia
11 Apr
Marsa
5 : 0
Mtarfa
01 Apr
Mtarfa
0 : 1
Vittoriosa
15 Mar
Gudja
3 : 0
Mtarfa
07 Mar
Mtarfa
0 : 2
Zurrieq
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League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Balzan FC15112237:1035
2Melita15102336:1732
3Birzebbuga15101429:1531
4Sirens1592439:1929
5Swieqi1592432:2329
6Fgura1581633:2425
7Pieta1573527:2124
8St. Andrews1572619:2323
9Mgarr1564528:2422
10Gudja1557316:1322
11Santa Lucia1546527:2518
12Zurrieq1542921:2714
13Vittoriosa1533917:2412
14Marsa1524918:288
15Zebbug1522119:378
16Mtarfa1511139:67-2
Promotion - Challenge League (Promotion Group)
Relegation - Challenge League (Relegation Group)