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Figueirense vs Carlos Renaux

Brazil Brazil

Catarinense Estádio Orlando Scarpelli
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

Figueirense play Carlos Renaux in the Catarinense. It looks like a close match. Recently, Figueirense averaged 0.97 goals scored and 1.31 conceded. Carlos Renaux averaged 1.14 goals scored and 1.14 conceded. In past meetings, Figueirense won 1, Carlos Renaux won 2, and they drew 1. Their last match on Mar 6, 2026 ended 2:4. Our numbers estimate xG of 1.69 for Figueirense and 2.81 for Carlos Renaux. This points to a Carlos Renaux double chance or over markets.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

35%
Figueirense
25%
Draws
40%
Carlos Renaux
Draw rate projection: 25% Favored: Carlos Renaux

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

71% / Medium Confidence
  • Figueirense picked up more points recently compared to Carlos Renaux.
  • Model forecasts higher goal threat for the host (1.69 vs 2.81 xG).
  • Past meetings show a clear pattern favoring the visitors.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 90%
Over 1.5 Goals 59%
Over 2.5 Goals 38%
Over 3.5 Goals 23%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 46%
Figueirense Clean Sheet 10%
Carlos Renaux Clean Sheet 10%
First Half Goal 53%
Second Half Goal 56%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Figueirense Carlos Renaux
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 10 10
Draws 5 9
Losses 14 9
Goals Scored 0.97 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.31 1.14
Expected Goals (xG) 1.38 4.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.63 2.00

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 6, 2026 Catarinense
Figueirense vs Carlos Renaux
2:4
Feb 2, 2026 Catarinense
Carlos Renaux vs Figueirense
1:0
Oct 9, 2022 Copa Santa Catarina
Figueirense vs Carlos Renaux
0:0
Sep 14, 2022 Copa Santa Catarina
Carlos Renaux vs Figueirense
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Figueirense Compare

Top Goalscorer Hyuri
1 Goals
Assists Leader Kayke
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.06
Avg xA / game 0.69

Carlos Renaux Compare

Top Goalscorer de Deus C. d. A.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Erverson
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 3.64
Avg xA / game 2.22

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Figueirense 34 / 100
Carlos Renaux 38 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Figueirense Carlos Renaux

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Double Chance: Carlos Renaux or Draw (X2)
Secondary Pick Under 3.5 Goals
First Half Result Draw (HT)
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

Value Bet Detector (+EV)

Matches where our model probability exceeds implied bookmaker odds

1X2 Home Win
Value Edge +29.5%
3.70
Goals Over/Under Over 2.5 Goals
Value Edge +18.9%
3.13
*EV represents Expected Value. A positive value edge means the bookmaker has priced the selection significantly below its true statistical likelihood.

Attacking Heatmaps & Shot Locations

Dynamic heat overlays computed from tactical zone entries

Figueirense attacking → ← attacking Carlos Renaux

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Figueirense scored in 66% of their last 29 games.

Carlos Renaux let in goals in 68% of their last 28 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Figueirense went unbeaten in 4 of their last 5 games.

Carlos Renaux lost 1 of their last 5 games.

Interactive Team Comparison Slider

Side-by-side comparison of team metrics

35 Points in last 5 39
1.38 Goals expected (xG) 4.00
1.63 Goals conceded expected (xGA) 2.00

League Standings

PosTeam P W D L GD Pts
1Marcilio Dias641110:513
2Carlos Renaux641110:813
3Figueirense62046:77
4Joinville61056:123