Sport Picks

World

World Championship 2026 Helsinki Olympic Stadium, Helsinki

Finland

2 - 1

Lithuania

Our Tip

Match Events

14'

Dolznikov A.

25'

Sirvys P.

48'

Kallman B.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Finland in this World Championship 2026 matchup, with the score ending 2-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored Finland.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%

Finland

15%

Draws

42%

Lithuania

Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Finland

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence

Lithuania haven't matched Finland's recent run of results.
Model gives Finland a 43% chance of winning this.
Continental football usually means sharper preparation from both sides.
Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 91%

Over 1.5 Goals 81.5%

Over 2.5 Goals 25%

Over 3.5 Goals 22%

Over 4.5 Goals 10%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 29.6%

Finland Clean Sheet 68%

Lithuania Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	Finland	Lithuania
Matches Played	30	28
Wins	9	6
Draws	2	5
Losses	19	17
Goals Scored	1.1	0.82
Goals Conceded	1.8	1.5
Expected Goals (xG)	1.56	1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.10	1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Oct 9, 2025 World Championship

Finland vs Lithuania

2:1

Mar 24, 2025 World Championship

Lithuania vs Finland

2:2

May 29, 2014 Baltic Cup

Finland vs Lithuania

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finland Compare

Top Goalscorer Kallman B.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Markhiev A.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.2

Avg xA / game 0.78

Lithuania Compare

Top Goalscorer Sirvys P.

1 Goals

Avg xG / game 0.96

Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finland 59 / 100

Lithuania 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

Finland Lithuania

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Finland Win (1)

Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No

Correct Score 1:0

BTTS Outcome No (NG)

Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: Finland scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Lithuania conceded in 75% of 28 recent games.

Games between these two average 2.67 goals.

Difficult form: Lithuania registered 3 defeats in their last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Finland VS Lithuania

1.38 Goals Scored 0.75

1.38 Goals Conceded 1.75

75% Over 1.5 88%

63% Over 2.5 38%

38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

Finland

(Home)

05 Jun

Hungary

2 : 1

Finland

31 May

Germany

4 : 0

Finland

30 Mar

Cape Verde

2 : 1

Finland

27 Mar

New Zealand

0 : 2

Finland

17 Nov

Finland

4 : 0

Andorra

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Lithuania

(Away)

09 Jun

Estonia

1 : 0

Lithuania

06 Jun

Lithuania

2 : 1

Latvia

29 Mar

Lithuania

0 : 2

Georgia

26 Mar

Moldova

0 : 2

Lithuania

17 Nov

Netherlands

4 : 0

Lithuania

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