Sport Picks

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Finn Harps vs Kerry

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Finn Park, Ballybofey
Finn Harps Logo

Finn Harps

Fri, Oct 2, 2026
VS
06:45 PM
Kerry Logo

Kerry

Our Tip
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Finn Harps host Kerry in the Division 1. This has the makings of an open, high-scoring game. Recent numbers: Finn Harps at 0.79 goals for, 2.07 against; Kerry at 1.27 for, 1.27 against. Past meetings favor Finn Harps slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jul 24, 2026, ending 2:1. The numbers (1.13 xG vs 2.31) point toward Kerry. Over 2.5 looks the sharpest market angle here.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

21%
Finn Harps
15%
Draws
64%
Kerry
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: Kerry

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

15% / Low Confidence
  • Finn Harps haven't matched Kerry's recent run of results.
  • 40% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 70%
Over 4.5 Goals 32%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 69%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 10%
Kerry Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finn Harps Kerry
Matches Played 29 30
Wins 5 13
Draws 4 6
Losses 20 11
Goals Scored 0.79 1.27
Goals Conceded 2.07 1.27
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 2.31
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 24, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Finn Harps
2:1
May 8, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Kerry
1:0
Mar 20, 2026 Division 1
Kerry vs Finn Harps
1:0
Oct 13, 2025 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Kerry
1:1
Aug 8, 2025 Division 1
Kerry vs Finn Harps
0:1

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finn Harps 30 / 100
Kerry 29 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finn Harps Kerry

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Draw (X)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Kerry's defensive record shows goals conceded in 70% of 30 matches.

These sides typically produce 1.60 goals when they meet.

Attacking prowess: Finn Harps scored in 52% of their last 29 outings.

Solid form: Finn Harps remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

Finn Harps VS Kerry
1 Goals Scored 1.63
3 Goals Conceded 1.25
75% Over 1.5 75%
75% Over 2.5 63%
63% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

Finn Harps

(Home)
25 Sept
Treaty United
2 : 1
Finn Harps
18 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Longford
11 Sept
Wexford
1 : 3
Finn Harps
04 Sept
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Athlone
28 Aug
UC Dublin
5 : 4
Finn Harps
Page 1 of 6

Kerry

(Away)
25 Sept
Kerry
1 : 0
Wexford
18 Sept
Athlone
3 : 0
Kerry
11 Sept
Kerry
0 : 1
Bray
05 Sept
Longford
0 : 1
Kerry
28 Aug
Kerry
3 : 1
Treaty United
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 Cork City 32 22 5 5 69:30 71
2 Bray 33 15 8 10 64:45 53
3 UC Dublin 33 14 7 12 57:48 49
4 Cobh Ramblers 33 13 7 13 42:49 46
5 Kerry 33 12 9 12 40:39 45
6 Athlone 33 12 9 12 39:39 45
7 Longford 32 12 8 12 42:41 44
8 Wexford 33 11 7 15 37:48 40
9 Treaty United 33 9 9 15 33:48 36
10 Finn Harps 33 6 7 20 30:66 25
Promotion - Premier Division 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Play Offs)