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Stadium Background

Finn Harps vs Treaty United

Ireland Ireland

Division 1 Finn Park, Ballybofey
Our Tip

Match Events

10' Event
Oyenuga J.
18' Event
Oyenuga J.
31'
Ohin R.

AI Match Summary

The Division 1 game between Finn Harps and Treaty United finished 2-2.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%
Finn Harps
39%
Draws
30%
Treaty United
Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence
  • Look at the last few games and Treaty United come out ahead of Finn Harps on wins alone.
  • 39% chance of a draw — the model doesn't see a clear favorite.
  • Regular Division 1 form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 63%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 22%
Over 4.5 Goals 10%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 30%
Finn Harps Clean Sheet 16%
Treaty United Clean Sheet 68%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric Finn Harps Treaty United
Matches Played 28 32
Wins 6 10
Draws 7 9
Losses 15 13
Goals Scored 0.63 0.88
Goals Conceded 2.13 1.63
Expected Goals (xG) 0.63 0.88
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 2.13 1.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jul 10, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Treaty United
0:1
May 15, 2026 Division 1
Treaty United vs Finn Harps
3:0
Mar 13, 2026 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Treaty United
2:2
Aug 29, 2025 Division 1
Finn Harps vs Treaty United
1:0
Jun 27, 2025 Division 1
Treaty United vs Finn Harps
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

Finn Harps Compare

Top Goalscorer McAteer G.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Tourish C.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 0.48
Avg xA / game 0.32

Treaty United Compare

Top Goalscorer Oyenuga J.
2 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.8
Avg xA / game 0.49

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

Finn Harps 31 / 100
Treaty United 41 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
Finn Harps Treaty United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick TRE Win (2)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals & BTTS No
Correct Score 0:1
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Finn Harps's goal record stands at 64% scoring rate across 28 recent games.

Treaty United let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Games between these two average 2.00 goals.

Recent resilience: Finn Harps stayed unbeaten in 2 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

Finn Harps VS Treaty United
0.63 Goals Scored 0.88
2.13 Goals Conceded 1.63
63% Over 1.5 63%
50% Over 2.5 63%
50% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

Finn Harps

(Home)
24 Jul
Kerry
2 : 1
Finn Harps
17 Jul
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Bray
10 Jul
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Treaty United
03 Jul
Finn Harps
1 : 0
Wexford
26 Jun
Athlone
1 : 1
Finn Harps
Page 1 of 6

Treaty United

(Away)
24 Jul
Treaty United
2 : 1
Athlone
17 Jul
Treaty United
1 : 2
UC Dublin
10 Jul
Finn Harps
0 : 1
Treaty United
03 Jul
Treaty United
2 : 1
Kerry
26 Jun
Wexford
0 : 0
Treaty United
Page 1 of 7

League Standings

PosTeamPWDLGDPts
1Cork City24173448:2054
2Bray24117648:3140
3UC Dublin24123941:2939
4Longford2387827:3031
5Cobh Ramblers24941126:3431
6Kerry2478926:3029
7Wexford2377927:3228
8Athlone24761122:2927
9Treaty United24681024:3526
10Finn Harps24571221:4022
Promotion - Premier Division 2027 (Main)
Promotion - Division 1 (Play Offs)