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FK Auda Riga vs Ogre United Prediction & H2H Stats

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Virsliga Skonto stadions, Riga
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Match Events

12' Event
Daskevics E.
Assist: Diedhiou B.
30'
Ouedraogo M.
51'
Sub
Kalnins M. In: Ivulans M.
Out: Kalnins M.

AI Match Summary

The Virsliga game between FK Auda Riga and Ogre United finished 1-0, a result that aligned with the model's pre-match lean toward FK Auda Riga.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

51%
FK Auda Riga
30%
Draws
19%
Ogre United
Draw rate projection: 30% Favored: FK Auda Riga

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

51% / Medium Confidence
  • Ogre United haven't matched FK Auda Riga's recent run of results.
  • 51% — that's where the model lands on FK Auda Riga taking it.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
  • FK Auda Riga have won 2 of the last 3 meetings between these two.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 44%
Over 4.5 Goals 20%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.8%
FK Auda Riga Clean Sheet 20%
Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Auda Riga Ogre United
Matches Played 33 29
Wins 20 5
Draws 7 5
Losses 6 19
Goals Scored 1.7 1.14
Goals Conceded 1.12 2.59
Expected Goals (xG) 1.94 1.06
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 16, 2026 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs Ogre United
1:0
May 30, 2026 Virsliga
FK Auda Riga vs Ogre United
2:0
Apr 17, 2026 Virsliga
Ogre United vs FK Auda Riga
1:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Auda Riga Compare

Top Goalscorer Daskevics E.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 1.49
Avg xA / game 0.97

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 0.96
Avg xA / game 0.59

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Auda Riga 85 / 100
Ogre United 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Auda Riga Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Auda Riga Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FK Auda Riga scored in 88% of their last 33 outings.

Defensive concern: Ogre United conceded in 93% of 29 recent games.

FK Auda Riga went unbeaten in 5 of their last 5 games.

Games between these two average 1.67 goals.

Scoring Trends

FK Auda Riga VS Ogre United
1.63 Goals Scored 1
1.13 Goals Conceded 2.25
63% Over 1.5 75%
50% Over 2.5 75%
38% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Auda Riga

(Home)
20 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 1
RFS
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
06 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Grobina
02 Sept
BFC Daugavpils
2 : 3
FK Auda Riga
Page 1 of 7

Ogre United

(Away)
20 Sept
Ogre United
1 : 0
Super Nova
16 Sept
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
Ogre United
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
05 Sept
Tukums 2000
2 : 1
Ogre United
30 Aug
Ogre United
0 : 3
RFS
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)