Sport Picks

Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions

FK Liepaja

4 - 1

Ogre United

Our Tip

Match Events

Sorokins V.

Assist: Korotkovs I.

24'

Sorokins V.

28'

Sub

Mashchenko V. In: Johnson K.

Out: Mashchenko V.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 4-1 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

50%

FK Liepaja

28%

Draws

22%

Ogre United

Draw rate projection: 28% Favored: FK Liepaja

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

76% / High Confidence

FK Liepaja have won more games recently than Ogre United.
Model gives FK Liepaja a 50% chance of winning this.
Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).
History favors FK Liepaja here — 3 wins from the last 3 head-to-heads.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 50.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 23%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 71.8%

FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 16%

Ogre United Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FK Liepaja	Ogre United
Matches Played	29	29
Wins	12	6
Draws	4	4
Losses	13	19
Goals Scored	1	1.5
Goals Conceded	1.5	2.63
Expected Goals (xG)	1.00	1.50
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	1.50	2.63

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 30, 2026 Virsliga

FK Liepaja vs Ogre United

Possession: 55% - 59% Cards: 0 - 1

4:0

May 12, 2026 Virsliga

FK Liepaja vs Ogre United

Possession: 51% - 52% Cards: 1 - 1

4:1

Mar 20, 2026 Virsliga

Ogre United vs FK Liepaja

Possession: 41% - 51% Cards: 3 - 2

0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Sorokins V.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Amatkarijo C.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.77

Avg xA / game 0.5

Ogre United Compare

Avg xG / game 1.36

Avg xA / game 0.83

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 48 / 100

Ogre United 22 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FK Liepaja Ogre United

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FKL Win (1)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 2:1

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Ogre United has conceded goals in 90% of their last 29 outings.

H2H data points to 3.33 goals as a typical output.

FK Liepaja's goal record stands at 66% scoring rate across 29 recent games.

FK Liepaja has registered 3 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS Ogre United

1 Goals Scored 1.5

1.5 Goals Conceded 2.63

63% Over 1.5 100%

50% Over 2.5 75%

38% Over 3.5 63%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Riga FC	23	18	4	1	68:20	58
2	RFS	22	18	2	2	54:16	56
3	FK Auda Riga	22	12	4	6	37:26	40
4	BFC Daugavpils	23	8	6	9	29:29	30
5	FK Liepaja	22	8	4	10	28:34	28
6	Jelgava	22	6	7	9	24:38	25
7	Super Nova	22	7	3	12	23:35	24
8	Grobina	22	4	8	10	15:33	20
9	Tukums 2000	23	3	8	12	38:47	17
10	Ogre United	23	3	4	16	21:59	13