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FK Liepaja vs Riga FC - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

Virsliga Daugavas stadions, Liepāja
Our Tip

Match Events

4' Event
Oloko E.
Assist: Ogunniyi A.
6'
Talisca
17' Event
Badamosi M.
Assist: Cernomordijs A.

AI Match Summary

FK Liepaja in this Virsliga matchup, with the score ending 3-2 — backing the pre-match view that favored FK Liepaja.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

23%
FK Liepaja
35%
Draws
42%
Riga FC
Draw rate projection: 35% Favored: Riga FC

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

42% / Low Confidence
  • Riga FC have won more games recently than FK Liepaja.
  • Model puts this one close, with a 44% draw probability.
  • Regular Virsliga form gives a decent read on both sides.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 46.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 21%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 72.2%
FK Liepaja Clean Sheet 17%
Riga FC Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Liepaja Riga FC
Matches Played 30 29
Wins 12 21
Draws 5 6
Losses 13 2
Goals Scored 1.27 2.28
Goals Conceded 1.4 1
Expected Goals (xG) 1.32 1.43
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Aug 31, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Riga FC
3:2
Jun 21, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs FK Liepaja
4:0
May 3, 2026 Virsliga
Riga FC vs FK Liepaja
1:0
Mar 7, 2026 Virsliga
FK Liepaja vs Riga FC
2:1
Oct 3, 2025 Virsliga
Riga FC vs FK Liepaja
3:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Liepaja Compare

Top Goalscorer Oloko E.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Ogunniyi A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.02
Avg xA / game 0.66

Riga FC Compare

Top Goalscorer Badamosi M.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Taiwo A.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.3
Avg xA / game 0.79

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Liepaja 36 / 100
Riga FC 20 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Liepaja Riga FC

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick Riga FC Win (2)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 1:2
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.20 goals.

Attacking prowess: FK Liepaja scored in 63% of their last 30 outings.

Defensive concern: Riga FC conceded in 62% of 29 recent games.

Recent resilience: FK Liepaja stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Liepaja VS Riga FC
1.14 Goals Scored 2
0.86 Goals Conceded 1.5
43% Over 1.5 88%
43% Over 2.5 63%
43% Over 3.5 50%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Liepaja

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Liepaja
0 : 0
BFC Daugavpils
11 Sept
Ogre United
2 : 2
FK Liepaja
07 Sept
RFS
0 : 0
FK Liepaja
31 Aug
FK Liepaja
3 : 2
Riga FC
25 Aug
FK Auda Riga
1 : 0
FK Liepaja
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Riga FC

(Away)
03 Oct
Aris Limassol
1 : 2
Riga FC
19 Sept
Jelgava
0 : 1
Riga FC
15 Sept
Super Nova
0 : 1
Riga FC
11 Sept
Riga FC
2 : 2
FK Auda Riga
07 Sept
Riga FC
1 : 1
BFC Daugavpils
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League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 RFS 30 23 5 2 71:22 74
2 Riga FC 31 22 7 2 86:30 73
3 FK Auda Riga 31 18 7 6 49:30 61
4 FK Liepaja 31 12 7 12 41:43 43
5 BFC Daugavpils 31 10 9 12 35:35 39
6 Super Nova 30 10 5 15 29:40 35
7 Jelgava 31 8 8 15 32:49 32
8 Grobina 31 5 11 15 21:52 26
9 Tukums 2000 31 5 9 17 44:61 24
10 Ogre United 31 4 6 21 30:76 18
Promotion - Champions League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Promotion - Conference League 2027/2028 (Qualification)
Relegation - Virsliga (Relegation)
Relegation - 1. Liga 2027 (Main)