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FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Lithuania Lithuania

Lithuanian Cup S. Dariaus ir S. Girėno stadionas, Kaunas
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
11:15 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

The first leg ended 1-2. The second leg of this knockout tie follows. Recent form is the clearest guide to this one. FK Minija have averaged 2.76 scored and 0.66 conceded recently, against FK Kauno Zalgiris's 1.57 scored and 0.86 conceded. Past meetings favor FK Kauno Zalgiris slightly — 0-1-0 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on Jun 25, 2019, ending 1:2. The numbers (1.88 xG vs 1.13) point toward FK Minija. AI prediction: Home (1) Win — correct score tipped at 2-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

47%
FK Minija
15%
Draws
38%
FK Kauno Zalgiris
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Minija

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

47% / Medium Confidence
  • FK Minija have won more games recently than FK Kauno Zalgiris.
  • Model gives FK Minija a 47% chance of winning this.
  • FK Minija have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor FK Kauno Zalgiris, who have won 1 of the last 1 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%
Over 1.5 Goals 82%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 14%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 67.4%
FK Minija Clean Sheet 20%
FK Kauno Zalgiris Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Minija FK Kauno Zalgiris
Matches Played 29 28
Wins 26 14
Draws 1 7
Losses 2 7
Goals Scored 2.76 1.57
Goals Conceded 0.66 0.86
Expected Goals (xG) 1.88 1.13
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Jun 25, 2019 Lithuanian Cup
FK Minija vs FK Kauno Zalgiris
1:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Minija 85 / 100
FK Kauno Zalgiris 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Minija FK Kauno Zalgiris

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Minija Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Attacking prowess: FK Minija scored in 90% of their last 29 outings.

FK Minija has registered 5 games unbeaten in their last 5 outings.

H2H data points to 3.00 goals as a typical output.

FK Kauno Zalgiris has conceded goals in 46% of their last 28 outings.

Scoring Trends

FK Minija VS FK Kauno Zalgiris
2.88 Goals Scored 1.75
0.5 Goals Conceded 0.88
88% Over 1.5 63%
88% Over 2.5 50%
38% Over 3.5 25%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Minija

(Home)
02 Oct
FK Minija
5 : 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 2
19 Sept
FK Minija
2 : 1
Neptunas
12 Sept
Dainava Alytus
0 : 3
FK Minija
05 Sept
FK Minija
3 : 0
Transinvest 2
01 Sept
FK Minija
3 : 2
Dainava Alytus
Page 1 of 6

FK Kauno Zalgiris

(Away)
20 Sept
FA Siauliai
0 : 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
16 Sept
Zalgiris
3 : 2
FK Kauno Zalgiris
13 Sept
FK Panevezys
0 : 1
FK Kauno Zalgiris
09 Sept
FK Kauno Zalgiris
5 : 1
Suduva
06 Sept
FK Kauno Zalgiris
5 : 0
Dziugas Telsiai
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Pempininkai 2
Sirijus 1
FK Minija 3
Suduva 2
FK Atmosfera 2
Zalgiris 1
SSPC FSK Radviliskis 0
FK Panevezys 2
Klaipedos FM 1
BE1 NFA 0
Viltis Vilnius 1
Dainava Alytus 7
Kursenai 1
Transinvest 10
Tauras Taurage 1
FC Hegelmann 4
Ataka Vilnius 4
FK Sirvena Birzai 0
Jonava 0
FA Siauliai 4
Neptunas 0
Dziugas Telsiai 2
Vilniaus Vytis 0
Banga 4
BFA Vilnius 1
FK Babrungas 0
AFK Vilnius 0
Garliava 3
Vilnius FA 0
Riteriai 1
FK Sveikata Kybartai 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 3
1/8-finals
Pempininkai 1
FK Minija 4
FK Atmosfera 0
FK Panevezys 3
Klaipedos FM 0
Dainava Alytus 2
Transinvest 2
FC Hegelmann 0
Ataka Vilnius 1
FA Siauliai 2
Dziugas Telsiai 1
Banga 0
BFA Vilnius 2
Garliava 1
Riteriai 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 4
Quarter-finals
FK Minija 2
FK Panevezys 1
Dainava Alytus 2
Transinvest 1
FA Siauliai 2
Dziugas Telsiai 1
BFA Vilnius 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 3
Semi-finals
FK Minija 3
Dainava Alytus 2
FA Siauliai 0
FK Kauno Zalgiris 1
Final
FK Minija -
FK Kauno Zalgiris -