Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Pardubice vs MFK Karvina

Czech Republic Czech Republic

Chance Liga 2025/2026 Stadion Arnosta Kostala, Pardubice
Sun, May 10, 2026
1 - 3
01:00 PM
Our Tip

Match Events

18' Event
Patrak V.
Assist: Vacek K.
22'
Sub
Vacek K. In: Samuel V.
Out: Vacek K.
28'
Sub
Hlavaty M. In: Misek S.
Out: Hlavaty M.

AI Match Summary

MFK Karvina in this Chance Liga 2025/2026 tie, finishing 1-3. One-off knockout football delivers a decisive result.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

53%
FK Pardubice
15%
Draws
32%
MFK Karvina
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Pardubice

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

53% / Medium Confidence
  • MFK Karvina have won more games recently than FK Pardubice.
  • FK Pardubice are the model's pick here, at 90%.
  • MFK Karvina arrive in better shape, but cup ties don't always follow form.
  • Historical meetings favor MFK Karvina, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 78%
Over 3.5 Goals 25.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 11%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 76.2%
FK Pardubice Clean Sheet 10%
MFK Karvina Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Pardubice MFK Karvina
Matches Played 30 27
Wins 13 15
Draws 6 1
Losses 11 11
Goals Scored 2.03 1.78
Goals Conceded 1.27 1.52
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 1.94
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 10, 2026 Chance Liga
FK Pardubice vs MFK Karvina
1:3
May 2, 2026 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice
1:2
Mar 8, 2026 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice
1:2
Oct 4, 2025 Chance Liga
FK Pardubice vs MFK Karvina
2:1
Nov 24, 2024 Chance Liga
MFK Karvina vs FK Pardubice
1:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Pardubice Compare

Top Goalscorer Patrak V.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

MFK Karvina Compare

Top Goalscorer Conde O.
1 Goals
Assists Leader Fiala J.
1 Ast
Avg xG / game 1.76
Avg xA / game 1.08

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Pardubice 83 / 100
MFK Karvina 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Pardubice MFK Karvina

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Pardubice Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Pardubice's goal record stands at 80% scoring rate across 30 recent games.

MFK Karvina has conceded goals in 81% of their last 27 outings.

H2H data points to 2.80 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: FK Pardubice stayed unbeaten in 4 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Pardubice VS MFK Karvina
1 Goals Scored 2.5
1.38 Goals Conceded 1.25
88% Over 1.5 100%
50% Over 2.5 88%
13% Over 3.5 38%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Pardubice

(Home)
19 Sept
FK Pardubice
2 : 1
Bohemians 1905
16 Sept
FK Kozlovice
0 : 6
FK Pardubice
13 Sept
Ostrava
1 : 2
FK Pardubice
05 Sept
Slovacko
0 : 0
FK Pardubice
29 Aug
FK Pardubice
1 : 2
Artis Brno
Page 1 of 6

MFK Karvina

(Away)
18 Sept
MFK Karvina
3 : 2
Kromeriz
11 Sept
Trinec
3 : 2
MFK Karvina
04 Sept
MFK Karvina
2 : 0
SK Kladno
29 Aug
Pribram
2 : 1
MFK Karvina
26 Aug
FK Kozlovice
2 : 1
MFK Karvina
Page 1 of 6

Tournament Bracket & Draw

Semi-finals
Sigma Olomouc 4
Bohemians 1905 3
FK Pardubice 3
MFK Karvina 4
Final
Sigma Olomouc 7
MFK Karvina 1