Sport Picks

Stadium Background

FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar

Bosnia and Herzegovina Bosnia and Herzegovina

Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup Stadion Asim Ferhatović Hase, Sarajevo
FK Sarajevo Logo

FK Sarajevo

0 - 1
FT
Velez Mostar Logo

Velez Mostar

Our Tip

Match Events

32'
Spahic A.
46'
Sub
Milak A. In: Mesic A.
Out: Milak A.
46'
Sub
Nukic A. In: Saric I.
Out: Nukic A.
Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

First leg ended 4-1. This leg finished 0-1.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

59%
FK Sarajevo
15%
Draws
26%
Velez Mostar
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Sarajevo

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

59% / Medium Confidence
  • Form's been kind to FK Sarajevo lately — more wins on the board than Velez Mostar.
  • Win probability leans FK Sarajevo's way, sitting at 90%.
  • FK Sarajevo have the better recent form, but knockout football is a different beast — one bad day ends the campaign.
  • Historical meetings favor Velez Mostar, who have won 1 of the last 5 encounters.
  • Strong defensive structures favor a low-scoring, controlled fixture.

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 85%
Over 1.5 Goals 56.5%
Over 2.5 Goals 25%
Over 3.5 Goals 6.5%
Over 4.5 Goals 3%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 28%
FK Sarajevo Clean Sheet 68%
Velez Mostar Clean Sheet 13%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Sarajevo Velez Mostar
Matches Played 31 32
Wins 15 13
Draws 5 7
Losses 11 12
Goals Scored 1.23 1.19
Goals Conceded 1 1.19
Expected Goals (xG) 1.13 0.76
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Sep 13, 2026 WWIN Liga BiH
Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
1:0
May 21, 2026 WWIN Liga BiH
Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
2:3
Mar 22, 2026 WWIN Liga BiH
FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar
1:0
Mar 11, 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup
Velez Mostar vs FK Sarajevo
4:1
Feb 25, 2026 Bosnia and Herzegovina Cup
FK Sarajevo vs Velez Mostar
0:1

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Sarajevo Compare

Avg xG / game 0.87
Avg xA / game 0.56

Velez Mostar Compare

Top Goalscorer Spahic A.
1 Goals
Avg xG / game 0.69
Avg xA / game 0.42

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Sarajevo 95 / 100
Velez Mostar 10 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Sarajevo Velez Mostar

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Sarajevo Win (1)
Secondary Pick Under 2.5 Goals or BTTS No
Correct Score 1:0
BTTS Outcome No (NG)
Over/Under Pick Under 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

FK Sarajevo found the back of the net in 68% of recent matches (31 games).

Defensive concern: Velez Mostar conceded in 69% of 32 recent games.

H2H data points to 2.60 goals as a typical output.

Recent resilience: FK Sarajevo stayed unbeaten in 3 of the last 5 games.

Scoring Trends

FK Sarajevo VS Velez Mostar
0.63 Goals Scored 0.63
0.88 Goals Conceded 1.63
38% Over 1.5 75%
25% Over 2.5 38%
0% Over 3.5 13%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Sarajevo

(Home)
25 Sept
Gornji Rahic
0 : 3
FK Sarajevo
20 Sept
FK Sarajevo
2 : 0
FK Sloga Meridian
13 Sept
Velez Mostar
1 : 0
FK Sarajevo
09 Sept
Zeljeznicar
2 : 0
FK Sarajevo
06 Sept
FK Sarajevo
1 : 0
Borac Banja Luka
Page 1 of 7

Velez Mostar

(Away)
19 Sept
Zrinjski
2 : 0
Velez Mostar
13 Sept
Velez Mostar
1 : 0
FK Sarajevo
06 Sept
Zeljeznicar
3 : 1
Velez Mostar
02 Sept
Velez Mostar
1 : 1
Radnik Bijeljina
28 Aug
Celik Zenica
3 : 0
Velez Mostar
Page 1 of 7

Tournament Bracket & Draw

1/16-finals
Famos Hrasnica 1
Jedinstvo Bihac 0
Laktasi 3
Zvijezda 09 1
Crni Vrh 0
Radnik Bijeljina 1
Krusevo 3
Borac Banja Luka 2
NK GOSK Gabela 5
Tuzla City 1
BSK Banja Luka 0
Rudar Prijedor 6
Romanija Pale 0
Zrinjski 2
Stupcanica 2
Leotar 0
Celik Zenica 1
Posusje 0
Hadzici 0
FK Sarajevo 3
Majevica 0
Velez Mostar 1
Gradina Srebrenik 1
Siroki Brijeg 4
Sloboda Tuzla 0
Zeljeznicar 2
Slatina 1
Slavija 2
Grude 0
FK Sloga Meridian 7
Tekstilac Derventa 4
SD Napredak 1
1/8-finals
Famos Hrasnica 0
Laktasi 1
Radnik Bijeljina 5
Krusevo 1
NK GOSK Gabela 1
Rudar Prijedor 0
Zrinjski 4
Stupcanica 0
Celik Zenica 0
FK Sarajevo 1
Velez Mostar 2
Siroki Brijeg 1
Zeljeznicar 4
Slavija 0
FK Sloga Meridian 4
Tekstilac Derventa 0
Quarter-finals
Laktasi 2
Radnik Bijeljina 4
NK GOSK Gabela 3
Zrinjski 5
FK Sarajevo 1
Velez Mostar 5
Zeljeznicar 1
FK Sloga Meridian 2
Semi-finals
Radnik Bijeljina 0
Zrinjski 2
Velez Mostar 6
FK Sloga Meridian 1
Final
Zrinjski 2
Velez Mostar 1