Sport Picks

Latvia

Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene

3 - 3

JFK Ventspils

Our Tip

Match Events

Messina M.

46'

Feldmans M.

58'

Lapins J.

Summary Win Prob Goals Form H2H Tactics Players Indices Predictions Timeline Accuracy Compare

AI Match Summary

Neither side could be separated in this Nakotnes liga matchup, with the score ending 3-3.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

31%

FK Smiltene

39%

Draws

30%

JFK Ventspils

Draw rate projection: 39% Favored: Draw

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

65% / Medium Confidence

Form's been kind to JFK Ventspils lately — more wins on the board than FK Smiltene.
Hard to split these two; draw probability sits at 39%.
This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 78%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 92%

Over 1.5 Goals 82%

Over 2.5 Goals 78%

Over 3.5 Goals 31.5%

Over 4.5 Goals 14%

Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 73.4%

FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 14%

JFK Ventspils Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric	FK Smiltene	JFK Ventspils
Matches Played	31	32
Wins	5	9
Draws	7	10
Losses	19	13
Goals Scored	1.38	1
Goals Conceded	2.25	1.25
Expected Goals (xG)	1.38	1.00
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA)	2.25	1.25

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

Mar 28, 2026 Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils

Possession: 56% - 56% Cards: 2 - 1

3:3

Sep 20, 2025 Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils

Possession: 49% - 49% Cards: 1 - 2

2:2

May 11, 2025 Nakotnes liga

JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene

Possession: 47% - 49% Cards: 3 - 3

2:1

Aug 31, 2024 Nakotnes liga

FK Smiltene vs JFK Ventspils

Possession: 59% - 48% Cards: 3 - 0

0:2

May 5, 2024 Nakotnes liga

JFK Ventspils vs FK Smiltene

Possession: 47% - 53% Cards: 2 - 2

2:0

Key Player Impact Analysis

Key performers and expected goal involvement factors

FK Smiltene Compare

Top Goalscorer Lapins J.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Dumins E.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 1.06

Avg xA / game 0.69

JFK Ventspils Compare

Top Goalscorer Messina M.

1 Goals

Assists Leader Feldmans M.

1 Ast

Avg xG / game 0.91

Avg xA / game 0.56

Sokapicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Smiltene 31 / 100

JFK Ventspils 29 / 100

How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

FK Smiltene JFK Ventspils

Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick JFK Win (2)

Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals & BTTS Yes

Correct Score 1:2

BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)

Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

Sokapicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Games between these two average 3.40 goals.

FK Smiltene's goal record stands at 71% scoring rate across 31 recent games.

JFK Ventspils let in goals in 72% of their last 32 matches.

Solid form: FK Smiltene remains unbeaten in 1 of 5 recent matches.

Scoring Trends

FK Smiltene VS JFK Ventspils

1.38 Goals Scored 1

2.25 Goals Conceded 1.25

88% Over 1.5 75%

50% Over 2.5 50%

50% Over 3.5 13%

League Standings

Pos	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FK Metta	12	10	1	1	42:11	31
2	Valmiera	12	9	2	1	32:12	29
3	Riga Mariners	12	8	4	0	25:10	28
4	Leevon PPK	12	7	3	2	20:15	24
5	Alberts JDFS	12	6	2	4	25:20	20
6	Marupe	12	6	1	5	22:15	19
7	Super Nova 2	12	5	4	3	19:17	19
8	Riga FC 2	12	5	1	6	19:22	16
9	Skanste	12	4	1	7	20:24	13
10	JFK Ventspils	12	2	4	6	15:20	10
11	RFS 2	12	2	3	7	15:26	9
12	Tukums 2000 2	12	2	2	8	16:31	8
13	Rezekne	12	1	2	9	10:36	5
14	FK Smiltene	12	0	4	8	12:33	4