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FK Smiltene vs Tukums 2000 2 - H2H Analysis, Preview & Predictions

Latvia Latvia

1. Liga
Sun, Oct 11, 2026
VS
11:00 AM
Our Tip

AI Match Summary

FK Smiltene host Tukums 2000 2 in the 1. Liga. Expect goals in this one — both sides have been finding the net. Recent numbers: FK Smiltene at 1.48 goals for, 2.55 against; Tukums 2000 2 at 1.41 for, 2.72 against. Past meetings favor FK Smiltene slightly — 2-2-1 in wins/losses/draws. They last met on May 24, 2026, ending 1:1. xG projections (2.56 - 2.19) back Tukums 2000 2 to edge this. The model tips Over 2.5 goals in this one.

Win Probability Meter

Derived from 10,000 simulations matching home advantage & form profiles

43%
FK Smiltene
15%
Draws
42%
Tukums 2000 2
Draw rate projection: 15% Favored: FK Smiltene

Model Confidence

Aggregate indicator score

43% / Low Confidence
  • Form's been kind to Tukums 2000 2 lately — more wins on the board than FK Smiltene.
  • 43% — that's where the model lands on FK Smiltene taking it.
  • This is a straightforward league game — the season-long numbers should hold up.
  • High conversion rates suggest a high-scoring game (Over 2.5 Probability: 79%).

Goal Probability Engine

Model estimations for goals markets based on xG conversion histories

Over 0.5 Goals 99%
Over 1.5 Goals 94%
Over 2.5 Goals 79%
Over 3.5 Goals 63%
Over 4.5 Goals 28%
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) 77%
FK Smiltene Clean Sheet 10%
Tukums 2000 2 Clean Sheet 10%

Recent Team Form Analysis

Averages per match over historical game filters

Metric FK Smiltene Tukums 2000 2
Matches Played 29 29
Wins 6 8
Draws 6 4
Losses 17 17
Goals Scored 1.48 1.41
Goals Conceded 2.55 2.72
Expected Goals (xG) 2.56 2.19
Expected Goals Conceded (xGA) 1.10 1.40

H2H

Historical prediction success rates across key markets

May 24, 2026 1. Liga
Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene
1:1
Oct 5, 2025 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs Tukums 2000 2
0:3
May 24, 2025 1. Liga
Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene
1:2
Aug 25, 2024 1. Liga
Tukums 2000 2 vs FK Smiltene
1:2
Apr 28, 2024 1. Liga
FK Smiltene vs Tukums 2000 2
0:2

SokaPicks Momentum Index

Current performance index incorporating opponent strength & fatigue (0-100)

FK Smiltene 65 / 100
Tukums 2000 2 14 / 100
How it's calculated: Weighted formula of recent form points (60%), goal margin trends (20%), home/away adjustments (10%), and squad impact availability ratings (10%).

Attack & Defence Capability Index

ATTACK DEFENCE POSSESSION DISCIPLINE
FK Smiltene Tukums 2000 2

AI Prediction Engine Forecast

Simulated score frequencies and primary prediction markets

Primary Pick FK Smiltene Win (1)
Secondary Pick Over 2.5 Goals or BTTS Yes
Correct Score 2:1
BTTS Outcome Yes (GG)
Over/Under Pick Over 2.5

SokaPicks Smart Insights

Historical trends and unique patterns automatically detected by our system

Defensive concern: Tukums 2000 2 conceded in 83% of 29 recent games.

FK Smiltene scored in 72% of their last 29 games.

Games between these two average 2.60 goals.

Tukums 2000 2's recent record shows 3 losses from the last 5 matches.

Scoring Trends

FK Smiltene VS Tukums 2000 2
1.5 Goals Scored 1.25
3.13 Goals Conceded 3.63
88% Over 1.5 100%
88% Over 2.5 75%
63% Over 3.5 63%

Recent Form & Match History

FK Smiltene

(Home)
19 Sept
Super Nova 2
0 : 2
FK Smiltene
12 Sept
FK Smiltene
4 : 1
Riga Mariners
05 Sept
Alberts JDFS
3 : 2
FK Smiltene
29 Aug
FK Smiltene
0 : 6
FK Metta
23 Aug
Leevon PPK
4 : 2
FK Smiltene
Page 1 of 6

Tukums 2000 2

(Away)
26 Sept
Tukums 2000 2
1 : 0
JFK Ventspils
19 Sept
Tukums 2000 2
3 : 1
Rezekne
12 Sept
Marupe
5 : 0
Tukums 2000 2
06 Sept
Tukums 2000 2
0 : 3
Leevon PPK
30 Aug
Skanste
6 : 2
Tukums 2000 2
Page 1 of 6

League Standings

Pos Team P W D L GD Pts
1 FK Metta 21 17 3 1 89:17 54
2 Valmiera 21 16 3 2 60:23 51
3 Leevon PPK 21 15 4 2 43:25 49
4 Riga Mariners 21 14 5 2 50:23 47
5 Alberts JDFS 21 11 4 6 42:31 37
6 Marupe 21 9 2 10 34:32 29
7 Skanste 21 8 2 11 43:42 26
8 Riga FC 2 21 7 5 9 29:37 26
9 Super Nova 2 21 6 7 8 28:32 25
10 Tukums 2000 2 21 5 3 13 27:60 18
11 FK Smiltene 21 4 4 13 29:57 16
12 RFS 2 21 4 3 14 34:62 15
13 JFK Ventspils 21 3 6 12 21:41 15
14 Rezekne 21 1 3 17 17:64 6
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